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I agree this is going to take time to play out.
Manufacturers will slow production, helping avoid worsening an oversupply problem caused by a decrease in demand. This is Economics 101.
Lease returns are contractually known in terms of date of return, and have some semblance of predictability. Finance companies may be offering flexible deals to avoid financial calamity for them (the finance companies).
Consumers dumping an underwater deal, ie vehicle purchased on credit or early lease get-out, seems like a small contributor to the overall picture. These vehicles will be on the newer/lower mileage end of the scale, and will bring OK-ish prices on the used market.
Prices will drop on used vehicles with no loan, sold by consumers seeking to liquidate assets and raise cash. Possibly for example a 7 year old Toyota Corolla with 105k miles. These are not in my search criteria, so are of no relevance to me, and I argue of little relevance to the big picture.
I don’t see a 3 year old Ferrari 812 Superfast with 15k miles going for “cheap” in this environment.
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