Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott
The problem with this thesis is 3 fold:
(1.) There's always normal customer replacement: some try and move on, some age out of certain models, etc, thus any "future buyers" have to be beyond that normal turn-over which is typically pretty hard.
(2.) This is because the buyer personas per age group don't generally change much - thus any design change risks losing the existing personas, so the "future buyer" cohort has to be so large it replaces change-loss; in the product world, that's been typically almost impossible. New Coke is great example - they had to bring back old coke (coke classic!).
(3.) "Future buyer" behavior is unknown - even if you can overcome turn-over loss and design-change loss with the numbers of future buyers, it's unknown whether these buyers are loyal an will stick around or if they'll buy and fly. That's an enormous risk.
If BMW is opening up a new market that's so large they can't not go for it (i.e., China) then the risk may be worth it, but it's an awfully big risk.
With all of that said, us loyal BMW-buyers will probably overlook a design fail after the fact (i.e., not buy the beaver, but also not be dissuaded from buying the post-beaver).
So, if BMW thinks China is big enough opportunity to take a design risk, I could understand that. On the other hand, if they think "future buyer" is in existing markets, then I think they're making a huge mistake and there are reams of examples: New Coke, Crystal Pepsi, McD Arch Deluxe, Frito-lay Wow chips with olestra, Blackberry storm, etc
and lets' not forget that original big grille!
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Well it's all supposition at this point, but I'm sure we'll revisit this topic over the next two years to see how BMW fares once these cars are available in various markets.