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I agree with a lot of what is being said. For me the important point is the tightness of supply vs demand. Supply has been restricted by production shutdowns. Demand is less (maybe) because of the virus.
My feeling is the net effect will not change tightness much. Price is highly correlated with tightness, not absolute levels of supply or demand.
If one person needs one light bulb, and only one person is selling the only light bulb available, the price for the transaction will be high, all else being equal. What happens if two people each need to buy one light bulb, and the availability of light bulbs remains just one lonely light bulb?
I have a similar view on residential real estate and home construction. Supply and demand are tight across the country.
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