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      11-11-2019, 08:12 AM   #934
Wills2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
The problem with this thesis is 3 fold:

(1.) There's always normal customer replacement: some try and move on, some age out of certain models, etc, thus any "future buyers" have to be beyond that normal turn-over which is typically pretty hard.

(2.) This is because the buyer personas per age group don't generally change much - thus any design change risks losing the existing personas, so the "future buyer" cohort has to be so large it replaces change-loss; in the product world, that's been typically almost impossible. New Coke is great example - they had to bring back old coke (coke classic!).

(3.) "Future buyer" behavior is unknown - even if you can overcome turn-over loss and design-change loss with the numbers of future buyers, it's unknown whether these buyers are loyal an will stick around or if they'll buy and fly. That's an enormous risk.

If BMW is opening up a new market that's so large they can't not go for it (i.e., China) then the risk may be worth it, but it's an awfully big risk.

With all of that said, us loyal BMW-buyers will probably overlook a design fail after the fact (i.e., not buy the beaver, but also not be dissuaded from buying the post-beaver).

So, if BMW thinks China is big enough opportunity to take a design risk, I could understand that. On the other hand, if they think "future buyer" is in existing markets, then I think they're making a huge mistake and there are reams of examples: New Coke, Crystal Pepsi, McD Arch Deluxe, Frito-lay Wow chips with olestra, Blackberry storm, etc
I approve this message and you're spot on IMO.

I'm in that demographic that grew up in the 70/80's with a father who always drove a Ford whilst I dreamed of BMWs so as soon as I could afford them I jumped straight in and after 20 years and 12 of them you could say I'm starting to drift in my views after 5 straight M cars I've now gone upstairs to the 7er, (pre LCI) however the LCI 7er to me looks fantastic it's a massive degree of change but I think it works. Whereas many of my demographic don't and have recoiled at it.

For me M cars have always been subtly beefed up versions of a fairly sedate looking but handsome base car, the F80 M3 was to my eyes quite a departure in terms of its visual drama especially if added spacers and the HAS kit, it looked mean and moody in a way that previous M cars just didn't.

The F8* series have been a success and I think we've all loved the more pumped up nature of these M cars, so perhaps this is a natural step (if a groin stretching one) to a car with much more road presence (see the LCI 7er for details) I think it's going to be much more expensive as well and therefore that demographic will demand more "show" for their "dough".

But to your original point, as you say it's a big risk but then again a faint heart never fucked a pig, as they say in the rural states....
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