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Originally Posted by Flamingi
To get back to topic on the 4 Series Coupe: I don't think it will be the last one. The 4 Series and the M4 specifically is the "heart" of BMW, it wouldn't be wise to axe it.
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One could also suggest that the 3er/M3 and 5er/M5 are the heart of BMW since these models grew both BMW and the M sub brand from its modest sales prior to their arrival to what it is today. It’s true that the M3 in particular was known primarily as a two door model for most of those years, but it is arguably the model name that is most important.
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What I think could happen is a reduction of development cost for the normal 4 series (for the new model in 7 years), so it will not get all the "extra" stuff (suspension, wider track etc.) compared to the 3 series. Also as mentioned before a reduction of drivetrains to only M440i and M4.
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That might keep it around for another generation, but unless something major changes, the trends suggest two box vehicles - SUVs and crossovers - will continue to dominate while those with three box form factors - sedans and coupes - will slide further to niche status.
We can surmise that the decline in coupe sales is due in no small part to the fact that one no longer needs to remove the rear doors from what would have otherwise been a sedan to advertise that their vehicle makes compromises in order to eek out the most performance for the footprint. Just the fact that it isn’t an SUV sends that message loudly and even more clearly than leaving off the rear doors once did. Furthermore, in today’s world of shared vehicle platforms, coupes offer no performance benefit over a sedan.
The above phenomena coupled with other trends such as manual transmissions and naturally aspirated engines being removed from sedans (which then makes them non viable from a business perspective in the equivalent coupe model) is why much of the enthusiast market has been moving to purpose built sports cars like those from Porsche.
If every single coupe model on the market today that also has a corresponding sedan (or in some cases, even a “four door” coupe) sibling were suddenly stricken from existence, the effect on the market might very well be negligible (this has already occurred for FWD models and few reading this thread even noticed). Those who can fit a sports car into their lives would simply buy one of those - and be the better off for it I’d say, and likely wonder why they didn’t sooner. And those that cannot would simply buy the sedan and be just as happy with the car’s performance. This hypothetical situation might very well be the reality by the middle of next decade if not sooner.