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One thing to keep in mind is that the X3 M40i price you are using is for MY2019, while the X3 M and M340i prices are for MY2020. This has significance because the X3 M40i will get both the new B58B30O1 (the same engine in the M340i and North American Z4 M40i) and the updated dashboard and instrument cluster for MY2020. This could come with a small increase in its base MSRP bringing the gap between it and the X3 M down a bit.
Also, while it doesn't change the raw numbers, it is important to keep standard equipment in mind. I don't know how the X3 M40i and M340i compare in that regard, but that too could change when the X3 M40i is updated for MY2020.
That being said, ~$15k has been typical for the gap between the M3 and the highest tier 3 Series in past generations, so I would expect it to remain right around there for this generation as well.
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