[bagekko]

We'll it could be worse...

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/gov...ced-economies/

But this is using the "official" number of $32T, but if they used the unofficial number of $123T which includes the unfunded SS & MC obligations. That would put US govt debt to GDP at about 500%.

The national debt sucks, but I have given up hope it will ever be reduced, heck I have given up hope the govt will ACTUALLY ever spend less than it takes on a given year.

[bagekko]

Here's a more realistic overall article.

https://mishtalk.com/economics/the-f...interest-rate/

[chassis]

Originally Posted by ASAP

do you want to see a bad picture or real bad?

if volume, then this is bad

if dollars, then this is REALLY bad considering price increases

You didn't answer the question. Again.

[chassis]

And folks, for the record, bacon is $5/lb at a regional grocery store, not on sale (regular price). Bacon has been $5/lb in my region for 30 years, with fluctuations.

The price of a men's name-brand triple blade disposable razor is less than $1/pc today. Double-blade cartridges were $1/pc 30 years ago.

What's happening? Deflation.

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by chassis

And folks, for the record, bacon is $5/lb at a regional grocery store, not on sale (regular price). Bacon has been $5/lb in my region for 30 years, with fluctuations.

The price of a men's name-brand triple blade disposable razor is less than $1/pc today. Double-blade cartridges were $1/pc 30 years ago.

What's happening? Deflation.

Chassis - that's not how this works, and you've just proven my point about consumer goods coming from Asia.

I'll see your razor blades and raise you auto insurance and homeowners insurance rates: 20-50% increases, or more in flood/hurricane zones.

Inflation is sticky and jumps from sector to sector. Right now, it's embedded in services (up 8.2% in January), and as of last week's PPi report, may be re-accelerating in finished goods, which were up 7.1% annualized.

Rent: up 6%
Legal/Business services: 6.8%
Streaming/Cable/TV: 5.3%
Utilities/City Services: 5.5%
Veterinary/Pet Supplies: 7%
Restaurants: 5.1%

What's down?
Energy: -10%
Durable Goods: -5.4%

Again: inflation bumps around from sector to sector, and considering the other variables contributing to long term inflationary pressures, the Fed is much better erring on the side of causing a mild recession than they are in not being aggressive enough with rates to keep inflation under wraps.

Unlike the 1980s/1990s, we don't have massive offshoring and new energy production to bring those two key parts of inflation (at that time) to heel. It's different this time, and with consumers showing no sign of slowing down their buying (retail sales dip in January is always an annual thing), this is going to be a tightrope.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

Chassis - that's not how this works, and you've just proven my point about consumer goods coming from Asia.

I'll see your razor blades and raise you auto insurance and homeowners insurance rates: 20-50% increases, or more in flood/hurricane zones.

Inflation is sticky and jumps from sector to sector. Right now, it's embedded in services (up 8.2% in January), and as of last week's PPi report, may be re-accelerating in finished goods, which were up 7.1% annualized.

Rent: up 6%
Legal/Business services: 6.8%
Streaming/Cable/TV: 5.3%
Utilities/City Services: 5.5%
Veterinary/Pet Supplies: 7%
Restaurants: 5.1%

What's down?
Energy: -10%
Durable Goods: -5.4%

Again: inflation bumps around from sector to sector, and considering the other variables contributing to long term inflationary pressures, the Fed is much better erring on the side of causing a mild recession than they are in not being aggressive enough with rates to keep inflation under wraps.

Unlike the 1980s/1990s, we don't have massive offshoring and new energy production to bring those two key parts of inflation (at that time) to heel. It's different this time, and with consumers showing no sign of slowing down their buying (retail sales dip in January is always an annual thing), this is going to be a tightrope.

don't listen to chassis ... he has been spitting bs for a while here now

he claimed inflation was way down and the next day we got a PPI / CPI reported that proved otherwise which I literally pointed to

agreed, service inflation is more serious because it's not as easily controlled and a large portion of it is based on labor cost which hasn't gone down at all... insurance that's not really controlled by anything outside of perhaps some legal limitations... to me the scariest is that housing is still insanely high combined with high interest rates, any sort of travel (air, hotel etc) is astronomical and like we mentioned insurance isn't slowing... people will continue to be squeezed unless we get a major recession which will create completely different problems altogether

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

don't listen to chassis ... he has been spitting bs for a while here now
…

I don’t always agree with @chassis but he posts interesting perspectives and data. As do many others here. Let’s stick to data, analysis and logic and step away from the personal. After all, this is a BMW forum subtopic, not an economics, finance or investing forum.

[Humdizzle]

Today was a good day if you were an nvda holder like myself

First time I've seen a 5 figure 1 day bump in my portfolio.

[Our03z4]

Originally Posted by ASAP

don't listen to chassis ... he has been spitting bs for a while here now

he claimed inflation was way down and the next day we got a PPI / CPI reported that proved otherwise which I literally pointed to

agreed, service inflation is more serious because it's not as easily controlled and a large portion of it is based on labor cost which hasn't gone down at all... insurance that's not really controlled by anything outside of perhaps some legal limitations... to me the scariest is that housing is still insanely high combined with high interest rates, any sort of travel (air, hotel etc) is astronomical and like we mentioned insurance isn't slowing... people will continue to be squeezed unless we get a major recession which will create completely different problems altogether

Right! Dude is clueless.

Examples:

Bought a JD 36inch commercial stand up mower for $6700 new, now they want $11,360 for the exact same model 3 years later.

Bought a 2019 F250XL work truck new for $28k, now they want almost $45K without markup.

Mower parts have doubled in price in just a few years.

Irrigation backflow devices went from being about $170 wholesale to almost $400 since 2019. All other irrigation items are up at least 40%.

Dump trailers were a little over $7k in 2019 and now are $13k.

Lets not even get started on labor costs.

Hard businesses to be in right now, worse I've seen in the over 20 years we've been in business. If your lawn or irrigation companies have been substantially raising prices this is why. We just HAD to do a 25% increase this year, hated it but have no other choice.

[chassis]

Solution for business owners: raise prices and reduce cost (purchased goods and services and labor productivity). Yes, you can and must do both. If you don’t think you should or it’s not possible you’re not running your business very well and someone else should own it or run it. Or you’re in a “bad neighborhood” meaning too much competition chasing too little and not growing demand. Acquire competition or exit the business in that case.

Solution for consumers: spend less/differently and/or earn more. Translated: live below your means.

Laserjet black and white single sided slow low graphic resolution printer: $2000 30 years ago. Laserjet color duplex photo quality printer scanner with ADF fast pages per minute: $550 today.

Volkswagen brake job: $1200 10 years ago. VW brake job today: $1200.

[2000cs]

We all know that anecdotes don’t tell the whole story, and even the official measures (PPI, CPI, WPI, etc) each have their limitations and appropriate uses. Clearly inflation is impacting some sectors more than others, as is usually the case.

As others have suggested, being in a business with some pricing power is good (and it is one of the things I look for when deciding whether to buy a stock). Being in a hyper competitive business implies that you need some other advantage(s) or will be “on the table”.

On a personal level, it is possible to insulate from many inflationary effects. A fixed-rate mortgage (or no mortgage) locks in a significant portion of one’s expenses. A fuel efficient car mutes the impact of fuel price increases. And there are substitutes for nearly all consumer products - get meat from a rancher/butcher instead of a grocery, and buy a side or half-side as an example. Make coffee at home, dine out less, etc. To some extent these impact the quality of life, but not necessarily dramatically.

People and businesses do these things to varying degrees, and so are experiencing inflationary impacts on their finances differently.

[other_evolved]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

We all know that anecdotes don’t tell the whole story, and even the official measures (PPI, CPI, WPI, etc) each have their limitations and appropriate uses. Clearly inflation is impacting some sectors more than others, as is usually the case.

As others have suggested, being in a business with some pricing power is good (and it is one of the things I look for when deciding whether to buy a stock). Being in a hyper competitive business implies that you need some other advantage(s) or will be “on the table”.

On a personal level, it is possible to insulate from many inflationary effects. A fixed-rate mortgage (or no mortgage) locks in a significant portion of one’s expenses. A fuel efficient car mutes the impact of fuel price increases. And there are substitutes for nearly all consumer products - get meat from a rancher/butcher instead of a grocery, and buy a side or half-side as an example. Make coffee at home, dine out less, etc. To some extent these impact the quality of life, but not necessarily dramatically.

People and businesses do these things to varying degrees, and so are experiencing inflationary impacts on their finances differently.

Exactly right. Housing makes up 1/3 of CPI, so if you are locked into a 3% mortgage, your personal inflation experience will likely be far below the headline figure.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by 2000cs

We all know that anecdotes don’t tell the whole story, and even the official measures (PPI, CPI, WPI, etc) each have their limitations and appropriate uses. Clearly inflation is impacting some sectors more than others, as is usually the case.

As others have suggested, being in a business with some pricing power is good (and it is one of the things I look for when deciding whether to buy a stock). Being in a hyper competitive business implies that you need some other advantage(s) or will be “on the table”.

On a personal level, it is possible to insulate from many inflationary effects. A fixed-rate mortgage (or no mortgage) locks in a significant portion of one’s expenses. A fuel efficient car mutes the impact of fuel price increases. And there are substitutes for nearly all consumer products - get meat from a rancher/butcher instead of a grocery, and buy a side or half-side as an example. Make coffee at home, dine out less, etc. To some extent these impact the quality of life, but not necessarily dramatically.

People and businesses do these things to varying degrees, and so are experiencing inflationary impacts on their finances differently.

so what you are saying is that asset owners who already have everything amassed at a fixed cost are doing great? folks entering the market place, starting their career or on a lower income are f'd? RIP to any semblance of any American dream at this point. I am the former... but I can still see how hard it is for people out there... folks are very blind to reality at this point as they sit in their own comforts.

[Chick Webb]

Originally Posted by ASAP

RIP to any semblance of any American dream at this point. I am the former... but I can still see how hard it is for people out there... folks are very blind to reality at this point as they sit in their own comforts.

Yeah, sorry, not buying that whine. I, too, am the former. But, we have three sons in their 20's and all are doing pretty well. Two because they made good choices (with our help) when they were in their teens and got degrees in fields that provided them with real skills (aeronautical engineering and computer science) that are in demand in the marketplace. One because he hustles. Granted, he's lagging behind the other two but is slowly getting on the righteous path.

Since they're all still sub-30, they've got plenty of time to realize their dreams. Not overnight, of course, but in due time. Success, despite what you see on social media, takes skill, patience, perseverence, and time.

[XutvJet]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Since they're all still sub-30, they've got plenty of time to realize their dreams. Not overnight, of course, but in due time. Success, despite what you see on social media, takes skill, patience, perseverence, and time.

A F-ing Men. Many in this society have become accustomed to a very high quality of living. Regardless of what you see on social media or what your friends might be doing, you can't have it all at a young age and/or if you do not have the income. So many want and expect it NOW. Right from the start, they want the big house, fancy car, expensive clothes, eating out all the time, the extra toys, etc. You have to work up to that. Also, all that crap often doesn't buy happiness but rather a crap load of stress trying to maintain it all.

Young folks don't buy starter homes anymore. They buy new or relatively new 3000+ Sq ft homes that three decades ago would have been considered mansions. I grew up in a wealthy county of Kansas City and only the select few rich kids I knew, lived in a new house or a 3k+ Sq ft house. Now it's the norm. Again, many people have become to a high quality and non-sustainable lifestyle. That's the large reason why many "struggle" in this country while bringing in $100k+ yr, barring a few select states/cities in the US. A majority of us could free up a ton a cash if we adjusted our lifestyle. But for most, it's hard to go backwards.

[2000cs]

Originally Posted by ASAP

so what you are saying is that asset owners who already have everything amassed at a fixed cost are doing great? folks entering the market place, starting their career or on a lower income are f'd? RIP to any semblance of any American dream at this point. I am the former... but I can still see how hard it is for people out there... folks are very blind to reality at this point as they sit in their own comforts.

I didn’t say anything about “doing great”, I just said they’d be less sensitive to inflation if they had fixed costs. On the flip side, if you have fixed income but variable expenses, you will experience financial pain from inflation.

I entered the workforce full time in 1982 - high inflation, high (relative to the 1970s) housing prices, car prices going up quarterly, rising rents, all that. In that era a lot more people had fixed incomes as pensions and SS were not (or were very recently) indexed to inflation. Today is very different, but there are still people better positioned than others.

The point I was making is that everyone and every business has options in how to deal with this - some have more than others to be sure. As a result inflation impacts each of us differently, so the anecdotes we all refer to do not characterize the economy broadly. At the same time, the official measures have the opposite problem - being averages they mischaracterize outliers on both ends of the spectrum.

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by Chick Webb

Yeah, sorry, not buying that whine. I, too, am the former. But, we have three sons in their 20's and all are doing pretty well. Two because they made good choices (with our help) when they were in their teens and got degrees in fields that provided them with real skills (aeronautical engineering and computer science) that are in demand in the marketplace. One because he hustles. Granted, he's lagging behind the other two but is slowly getting on the righteous path.

Since they're all still sub-30, they've got plenty of time to realize their dreams. Not overnight, of course, but in due time. Success, despite what you see on social media, takes skill, patience, perseverence, and time.

Not taking away from anything at all... but I highlighted 2 key parts of what you just said... choices were made with YOUR help, not sure if there was also any educational financial support but that does make a difference. 2nd part - comp sci and aero... comp sci and sw engineering are on a major decline right now w AI and the 10s of 1000s of layoffs that just happened... even finding a SW engineering job right now is borderline impossible (source, friend is a former java developer and another works for amazon but knows if he gets cut, finding another replacement job will be near impossible w comparable wages ... but alas, even all that aside not everyone needs to be or even should be in the hottest field of the last 10 years to make a halfway decent living.

Originally Posted by XutvJet

A F-ing Men. Many in this society have become accustomed to a very high quality of living. Regardless of what you see on social media or what your friends might be doing, you can't have it all at a young age and/or if you do not have the income. So many want and expect it NOW. Right from the start, they want the big house, fancy car, expensive clothes, eating out all the time, the extra toys, etc. You have to work up to that. Also, all that crap often doesn't buy happiness but rather a crap load of stress trying to maintain it all.

Young folks don't buy starter homes anymore. They buy new or relatively new 3000+ Sq ft homes that three decades ago would have been considered mansions. I grew up in a wealthy county of Kansas City and only the select few rich kids I knew, lived in a new house or a 3k+ Sq ft house. Now it's the norm. Again, many people have become to a high quality and non-sustainable lifestyle. That's the large reason why many "struggle" in this country while bringing in $100k+ yr, barring a few select states/cities in the US. A majority of us could free up a ton a cash if we adjusted our lifestyle. But for most, it's hard to go backwards.

While I agree with you in the grand scheme of things, I am going to ask you a very very thought provoking question... do you think waiting to purchase a home and saving up for a down payment in the last 10 years was a GOOD idea? Your advice is very sound... in an environment that doesn't have some of the highest inflation of the past 30 years... in fact anyone that DID save and didn't immediately buy (even before they could) came out so far behind that they in fact may not even be able to purchase in the future at all. Advice of yesteryear doesn't apply to today in nearly anything... even comparing advice from 20 years ago could get you into a lot of financial trouble.

Originally Posted by 2000cs

I didn’t say anything about “doing great”, I just said they’d be less sensitive to inflation if they had fixed costs. On the flip side, if you have fixed income but variable expenses, you will experience financial pain from inflation.

I entered the workforce full time in 1982 - high inflation, high (relative to the 1970s) housing prices, car prices going up quarterly, rising rents, all that. In that era a lot more people had fixed incomes as pensions and SS were not (or were very recently) indexed to inflation. Today is very different, but there are still people better positioned than others.

The point I was making is that everyone and every business has options in how to deal with this - some have more than others to be sure. As a result inflation impacts each of us differently, so the anecdotes we all refer to do not characterize the economy broadly. At the same time, the official measures have the opposite problem - being averages they mischaracterize outliers on both ends of the spectrum.

I agree with you... everyone will weather everything differently... however the fake rosy picture that is consistently being painted by wall street results is INSANELY disingenuous towards an enormous amount of people that are struggling right now as a result of inflation, layoffs and poor govt policy that sends $ to the wrong places.

[floridaorange]

https://www.vice.com/en/article/pkg4...tocks-sec-says

https://www.sec.gov/news/press-relea...ce=govdelivery

[ASAP]

I would stop loling but I just can't... where is mr chassis at?

Inflation comes in hot YET AGAIN!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/cpi-...ary-2024-.html

[tgrundke]

Originally Posted by ASAP

I would stop loling but I just can't... where is mr chassis at?

Inflation comes in hot YET AGAIN!

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/12/cpi-...ary-2024-.html

I am *shocked* that with consumer spending at an all time high, stocks hitting highs, residential real estate availability....that inflation could come in hot. Shocked, I tell ya!

[ASAP]

Originally Posted by tgrundke

I am *shocked* that with consumer spending at an all time high, stocks hitting highs, residential real estate availability....that inflation could come in hot. Shocked, I tell ya!

exactly... nothing is cooling off... these rates will continue to be kept high... we need to get government spending in check asap... or we will be in Zimbabwe soon...

[tgrundke]

And don't forget: federal budget negotiations just started. That'll add a lot of fuel to the fire.