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      03-29-2019, 03:05 PM   #1
Mako
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How long do you keep your Ms?

just curious the length most people on these forums keep their Ms, assuming you buy new.

the M3 is the first brand new M I bought (in 2015, had it 3.5 years now). before this car I can't even remember the last car I owned more than 3 years.

But as I am approaching the end of my warranty and free maint. I am questioning the "value" of keeping it any longer.

Doing very SIMPLE calculations it appears as though in September my M3 should have a trade in value around $43,000 (only have 20,000 miles on it, put on less than 6,000/year) and I figure it will depreciate around $500/month after that on average for the next 2 years, so at 6 years old with under 35,000 miles it should be worth around $30,000 (seems fair).

I got a quote from a local dealer of $2500 for 2 year extended warranty ($3,000 for 3 year) and because of the low mileage I estimate only around $1,000 in maintenance over the next 2 years.

So my total "cost" or loss per month to keep it 2 extra years out of warranty will be around $650/month


Now I know the G80 isn't coming out for another 1.5 years so for arguments sake lets say I was going to buy a X3M this fall, sticker of say $84,000. I figure after my trade in of 43,000 and maybe 5% off MSRP, means ~$82,500 total "cost" not including the value of my trade except for tax purposes. If that car also depreciated 55% over 4 years (low mileage) that means it will be worth about $46,000, so depreciation of around $760/month

seems like for only $110/month more getting a new car vs keeping my old one makes a lot more sense. Of course that also isn't factoring in what else I could do with that $40,000 I would have to put up for the new car (like investments).

Just seems like when people say buying a new car is a "waste" maybe it really isn't as much as people think.


Personally I will probably either get the X3M or keep my M3 for an extra 1-2 years until the G80 comes out. If I get the X3M then I will just keep my fingers crossed for a M4GC a few years later, which is what I really want.
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      03-31-2019, 08:54 AM   #2
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I do buy new because I can't wait. Lol, also love to be the first driving them on the road
It gives me a freedom to change whenever I feel like it.
So far I average about 9 months per ///M

I owned E46, E90 , E92, F80, F82, E70, F16, F90, and soon G80 ( plus 10 more that are not M )

I have bad car addiction
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      04-02-2019, 02:39 AM   #3
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Your trade in price might be a bit optimistic. Retail prices for a 2016 with 20k miles is about $47,500. Realistically figure closer to $40k if you plan on just trading it at a BMW dealership. Also, you are seriously undervaluing your car's value after another 2 years. There are a lot of lower mileage E90/E92 2011/2010 M3s going for about $30k right now. In 2 years, your car will still be worth in the mid 30s.

Your depreciation curve is at the sweet spot right now. If you trade your car in for a new one, you will take a bath. If you had wanted to do that, you should have just leased. Why purchase if you're replacing your car every 3 years?

If you're just trying to justify it, just do it. You're a grownup. If you want to spend your money on a car, you have every right to do it. But your math is just wrong. Your car will not go through $12,000 worth of depreciation between years 4 and 6.
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      04-02-2019, 04:40 AM   #4
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I don't know the situation in the USA, but here in Switzerland and I guess in most european countries it's always more expensive to lease (unless you have your own company and buy the car through the company), regardless of whether you only keep the car only for 3 years or longer.
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      04-02-2019, 07:52 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel View Post
Your trade in price might be a bit optimistic. Retail prices for a 2016 with 20k miles is about $47,500. Realistically figure closer to $40k if you plan on just trading it at a BMW dealership. Also, you are seriously undervaluing your car's value after another 2 years. There are a lot of lower mileage E90/E92 2011/2010 M3s going for about $30k right now. In 2 years, your car will still be worth in the mid 30s.

Your depreciation curve is at the sweet spot right now. If you trade your car in for a new one, you will take a bath. If you had wanted to do that, you should have just leased. Why purchase if you're replacing your car every 3 years?

If you're just trying to justify it, just do it. You're a grownup. If you want to spend your money on a car, you have every right to do it. But your math is just wrong. Your car will not go through $12,000 worth of depreciation between years 4 and 6.
I agree with these points. Also, what about sales tax on the new car? Also, maintenance is not included anymore, so you need to factor in a maintenance plan or the cost of paying for maintenance on the new car.

Oh, and to answer your question, I keep them around 6-7 years. I buy the first or second year of a new generation and then keep it until the next gen comes out. I don't see much value in keeping it only 3 years and then just getting the exact same thing. My car is currently 4 years old and still looks brand new.
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      04-02-2019, 01:10 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Croatian test driver View Post
I don't know the situation in the USA, but here in Switzerland and I guess in most european countries it's always more expensive to lease (unless you have your own company and buy the car through the company), regardless of whether you only keep the car only for 3 years or longer.
In America, as long as you drive less than 15,000 miles per year, leasing can often be cheaper. This is especially true with BMWs as BMW has been known to artificially inflate the residual values on their cars to advertise low lease rates.

Even if that weren't the case, though, leasing is barely much more money as you're essentially just paying for the depreciation plus a small percentage (essentially like a loan).

The only valid criticism against leasing is that you're constantly "buying" a new car every 3 years which is wasteful. You're essentially paying for the depreciation of a car when it's at the absolute highest levels of depreciation. Then you do it all over when the curve starts to flatten out. Whether you lease or buy, it's the same thing, your payments are just a little different. After three years, you'll more or less be in the same place financially IF you sell your car for proper market rates. However, if you simply trade in a used car at a dealership, you will do worse. Dealerships offer you less money for trade in. So if you are the type of person to get a new car every 3 years and don't know how to sell the car yourself, you should almost always lease.
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      04-03-2019, 11:36 AM   #7
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hopefully, you're not an accountant and as one I can tell you from a financial perspective, your calculation is entirely flawed. Like others have mentioned, the depreciation curve significantly flattens out and slows after the initial 3 year period. Especially on sought after M cars. If you can afford to be flipping into new 100k cars every 3 years then awesome but it's a horrible financial decision. In just about 2 lease cycles, you could have invested all that money in an sp500 ETF and bought an M car outright with cash money!
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      04-03-2019, 08:08 PM   #8
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So long as BMW inflates residuals at 60-61% leasing is the way to go if you want something new every 3 years. On my 2nd M and loving the flexibility of it!
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      04-03-2019, 10:33 PM   #9
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I'm usually ready to move on from any car after 2 years because within the first year I've developed enough complaints to start being dissatisfied and after the second year I'm tired of dealing with whatever those complaints are.

Always searching for that elusive vehicle that gives me no complaints. Not sure I'll ever find it. Gonna try out the X3M next and will probably lease because 10% sales tax is a real kick in the balls.
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      04-05-2019, 11:04 AM   #10
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The residual is key. From my perspective it has to be around 60% to interest me. Not sure why folks are interested in leasing an M2 competition with those horrible residuals of 45-48%. That is the definition of loser ball.
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      04-05-2019, 01:47 PM   #11
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Originally Posted by Clark_Kent View Post
The residual is key. From my perspective it has to be around 60% to interest me. Not sure why folks are interested in leasing an M2 competition with those horrible residuals of 45-48%. That is the definition of loser ball.
The best bet with an M2C is to wait until they hit the secondary market. I might jump on one of those or a M2 CS as a keeper so long as they depreciate like a normal car.
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      04-09-2019, 04:41 PM   #12
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Seems like a lot of you build no serious connection to your cars :/ but one great thing of owning a car long term is you get to know it inside and out so damn well that when something is off you know it in an instant!
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