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2019+ BMW 3 AND 4-SERIES FORUMS (G2x Generation) General G20 Sedan / G22 Coupe / G26 Gran Coupe Discussions 2020 M340i depreciation?

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      04-08-2019, 02:37 PM   #1
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2020 M340i depreciation?

How do you guys think the depreciation on a 2020 will be ?

I have never bought a brand new car, and I'm really scared of buying something at 60k and next year it's barely worth 40k. I currently drive a 2013 328i and I debate mentally everyday about getting a 2016 340i for 30k or a 2020 M340 brand new.

With my specs MSRP is 60k on the dot

If I can pull off 5% off I would definitely do it
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      04-08-2019, 02:41 PM   #2
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There's a reason people lease with all those incentives. You're going to lose a lot of money, simple fact. Especially on a non-discounted new car.

Why not get a 2015-2017 F80 M3 with 10-25k miles for 50-60k, do bootmod3 stage 1 for 80 extra hp, and call it a day? Will even keep up with a G80 M3 on a highway.
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      04-08-2019, 02:42 PM   #3
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It will depreciate like any other $60k BMW. Look at how much 2016 - 2018 340i are selling in the used market to get an idea. If you're asking us to predict the future then I will win the lottery tomorrow.
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      04-08-2019, 02:55 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex2364 View Post
It will depreciate like any other $60k BMW. Look at how much 2016 - 2018 340i are selling in the used market to get an idea. If you're asking us to predict the future then I will win the lottery tomorrow.

Being a 2020 model though I don't feel like the depreciation would be as serious, as you can get this car today then a year and 7 months from now it's still a CURRENT year model.


And to Robert yes a M3 is also on my mind as I can pick up a 2016 with 30k miles at 40-50k but I really want XDrive. The F80 M3 will definitely hold value compared the the M340 though. I test drove a M4 and it basically had no traction on a 32 degree day unless in 4th gear. It was lovely though
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      04-08-2019, 03:13 PM   #5
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You will always lose more money on a brand new car, regardless of which brand it is.

I don't understand why "pulling 5% off" would be the deciding factor for you to purchase an M340i if you're that worried about depreciation. Depending on where you live, you'll probably lose about 15% as soon as you drive off the lot, even more if you have to pay tax. If you can't stomach that, go for a used vehicle or "old new" off the lot if you want something brand new.
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      04-08-2019, 03:22 PM   #6
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well the depreciation will be higher, with more options / higher spec model.

I can't see a m340i being worth more than half its new MSRP in 3 years under reasonable milage. Its not going to be rare, or particularly desirable, its not some sort of classic or low production car like a cayman GT4 or something, and most people who want a used 3 series sedan aren't going to value it a lot higher than a 330i. At least BMW isn't inflating the residuals quite as high as they did previously, but realistic real world residual if you were to buy it and sell it in 4 years is going to be worse than a 330i since a m340i is basically a really really optioned out 330i with a ton of options most people don't care for on the used market
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      04-08-2019, 03:23 PM   #7
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Plus who pays full price for a BMW? People are already getting $10k+ off MSRP. https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh...6&postcount=23
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      04-08-2019, 03:52 PM   #8
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You should be able to get it at Invoice plus incentives.
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      04-08-2019, 04:53 PM   #9
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Be patient and wait for a CPO or demo to show up.

Never ever purchase a brand new BMW.
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      04-09-2019, 10:46 AM   #10
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 530iDriver View Post
Be patient and wait for a CPO or demo to show up.

Never ever purchase a brand new BMW.
Sensible recommendation if the goal is minimize depreciation during the first 1-2 years.
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      04-09-2019, 11:10 AM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex2364 View Post
Plus who pays full price for a BMW? People are already getting $10k+ off MSRP. https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh...6&postcount=23
Not everyone qualifies for those incentives and they do sometimes vary by region.
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      04-09-2019, 11:21 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by alex2364 View Post
Plus who pays full price for a BMW? People are already getting $10k+ off MSRP. https://g20.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh...6&postcount=23
Frank has stated multiple times that he has a longstanding relationship with the dealer and sends them business. People should not be reading his posts and expect to waltz into a dealer and get 10% off.
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      04-09-2019, 11:30 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RPM1123 View Post
Frank has stated multiple times that he has a longstanding relationship with the dealer and sends them business. People should not be reading his posts and expect to waltz into a dealer and get 10% off.
I think that anything more than 10% of invoice is paying too much. /s

I am sure Scott26 gets paid to drive BMWs, so try beating that!
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      04-10-2019, 01:43 PM   #14
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Apart from special M variants, BMWs are commodities. Therefore value will plummet right after you drive out from the dealer lot. Do people outright buy brand new 3-series these days?
I think most are long-term rentals....oops lease.
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      04-12-2019, 11:57 AM   #15
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Sales people gotta eat too. I usually pay invoice +500 and then whatever incentives I qualify for.
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      04-15-2019, 02:28 PM   #16
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I bought a 340i and sold it 3 months later. Took a nice bath. Just lease the car. It's not worth keeping. Drive it for 2-3 years and enjoy the pain-free experience of washing your hands of it when you are done!
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      04-15-2019, 03:08 PM   #17
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
I bought a 340i and sold it 3 months later. Took a nice bath. Just lease the car. It's not worth keeping. Drive it for 2-3 years and enjoy the pain-free experience of washing your hands of it when you are done!
That's pretty much any car including your M3 if you do it 3 months later lol
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      04-15-2019, 04:44 PM   #18
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Originally Posted by MT4life View Post
That's pretty much any car including your M3 if you do it 3 months later lol
Leasing would have offered the flexibility that purchasing didn't in this case. It would have been much easier to do a lease transfer rather than sell and lose a lot of money in depreciation.

To add, a first year M340i is going to be a bit less desirable on the secondary market than a later model because of all the little improvements they will make along the way. So if you purchase a M340i and plan to sell it in 6 years (when purchasing starts to become less costly than leasing), it will not be as attractive as the 3 year old 2023 LCI model.
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      04-15-2019, 04:54 PM   #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Leasing would have offered the flexibility that purchasing didn't in this case. It would have been much easier to do a lease transfer rather than sell and lose a lot of money in depreciation.

To add, a first year M340i is going to be a bit less desirable on the secondary market than a later model because of all the little improvements they will make along the way. So if you purchase a M340i and plan to sell it in 6 years (when purchasing starts to become less costly than leasing), it will not be as attractive as the 3 year old 2023 LCI model.
Agreed. LCI is the way to go anyway. I've learned that with E46, E90 and F30
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      04-15-2019, 08:51 PM   #20
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmg View Post
Leasing would have offered the flexibility that purchasing didn't in this case. It would have been much easier to do a lease transfer rather than sell and lose a lot of money in depreciation.
Lease transfer only works if you negotiate an amazing deal in the first place or put a lot of money down. No one will want a similar deal they can negotiate with the dealer themselves.
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      04-15-2019, 09:20 PM   #21
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Originally Posted by alex2364 View Post
Lease transfer only works if you negotiate an amazing deal in the first place or put a lot of money down. No one will want a similar deal they can negotiate with the dealer themselves.
I would never put anything down on a lease, but if I did, I would ask for a portion of that back for the lease transfer since the new owner is taking advantage of a lower payment due to the money down. (Money down/months of lease term)*months of ownership=how much they should pay you. However, putting a large amount down does not alone make a good lease deal.

Secondly, I only lease if the lease has favorable terms, so my leases should be attractive transfers. For instance, my i3 REx lease with an MSRP of $53k leases for $180/mo before tax. It would get lease transferred very quickly.

Third, if even a good lease deal isn't attractive to potential lease transfer recipients, a purchased car negotiated for the same selling price as said lease will not be attractive either. In this case, the lease at least has a guaranteed residual baked into the lease, and since it's BMW, it will be inflated. The purchased car will most likely either have a higher monthly, or a longer term with which the owner will be tied down to.

Fourth, if a car's real world residual is higher than the lease residual, you have every right to sell the car for higher than what is owed just like a financed car. HOWEVER, if the market is bad and the real world residual is lower than the lease residual, it doesn't effect you. You sill get the better residual. With a purchased car, you do not. So, within the term of the lease, the leased car has all the market advantages of the purchased car, but without the risk.

On a side note, this is how people afford Ferraris. Instead of a Closed End Lease that we have on most cars, Ferrari only does Open End Leases. It keep the monthly payment significantly lower than financing the car. At the end of the term, if it's the right Ferrari, the car has actually either appreciated in value, or has depreciated very little compared to a "normal" car. The car is then sold to a third party. Since the leaser retains the rights to sell the car, just like in any lease, then he/she is entitled to the profit if any. The original leaser uses the sale to pay down the close end lease balloon payment.

And that's how you drive a Ferrari for 2-3 years without going broke.
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      04-17-2019, 05:59 PM   #22
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