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      01-02-2019, 02:23 PM   #155
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I hope there isn't a test after this
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      01-02-2019, 02:36 PM   #156
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I hope there isn't a test after this
Better study hard then, pupil
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      01-02-2019, 03:04 PM   #157
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Law View Post

Of course, it's fun and intellectual to speculate, but talk is cheap and the Chinese Communists probably know that even though they like to talk big, an all-out conflict with the United States would only spell the death of their own regime.
The same can be said of North Korea.
In either case, we can only hope such a conflict never happens.
In case of Taiwan, I don't know if the US will come to Taiwan's aid in the case of a military invasion despite the paperwork. That's why most Taiwanese like to follow the ambiguous status of being neither dependent or independent from China.
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      01-02-2019, 03:37 PM   #158
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Law View Post
.

.....removed for brevity.......

Of course, it's fun and intellectual to speculate, but talk is cheap and the Chinese Communists probably know that even though they like to talk big, an all-out conflict with the United States would only spell the death of their own regime.
The same can be said of North Korea.
In either case, we can only hope such a conflict never happens.


As someone who spent nearly his entire military career as part of CINPACFLT, I can categorically agree with nearly all the assertions noted in LAW's post.

These details are spot on, and we really need to be cognizant with respect to China's attempt to destabilize the 1st Island Chain through attempted control over the South China Sea.

I also flew several missions out of Misawa, Japan and can confirm the details described in his post there as well.

Good details as always, Law
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      01-02-2019, 04:16 PM   #159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Refined View Post
There is no question the modern Chinese military possess the capability to carry out the threat, however I don't think the Chinese would be willing to pay the price for such an action.
I disagree, I believe their plenty of serious question pointing out the chineese won't be able to carry out their threat. The Chinese navy is a complete joke and their ballistic missile are hamper by their own command structure incompetence.
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      01-02-2019, 04:47 PM   #160
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z K View Post
In case of Taiwan, I don't know if the US will come to Taiwan's aid in the case of a military invasion despite the paperwork. That's why most Taiwanese like to follow the ambiguous status of being neither dependent or independent from China.
You're absolutely right about that, especially about the ambiguity.

Of course, the scenario I mentioned is just for broad understanding.

In Taiwan, the million dollar question since Washington severed diplomatic ties with Taipei in 1979 (and hence, the annulling of the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty between ROC (Taiwan) & the US) has been whether the US would come to Taiwan's aid in an event of invasion from the People's Liberation Army.

I agree with you that it's a policy that is an ambiguous, awkward, with a lot of "read in between the lines" stuff.
And It is my belief that in this case, the US has consistently engaged in a policy of deliberate ambiguity so as to not upset the status quo, but more specifically, it is ambiguous so that:
1) On the official level, it appears that the US has no formal commitments to Taiwan and therefore,
2) Taiwan will not be enabled/encouraged to declare formal constitutional independence, and therefore,
3) The PLA will not have a solid reason/motive to attack Taiwan,
4) The PLA will not know what to expect [of the US] if it does attack Taiwan and can only assume the worse, which therefore goes back to #3

So, that million dollar question is only worth a million dollars because the US purposely hides behind this ambiguity, forcing Taiwan and mainland China to maintain the awkward "peace" that is the status quo.

It's quite the genius strategy, really, and has worked for the most part for four decades.
Every time Beijing nears the bottom-line with Taiwan, the US simply flexes its Pacific Fleet a little bit.
It's an ambiguous but powerful message. The US is basically making the PLA play a guessing game, a gamble, so-to-speak.
And until/unless it's a gamble that Beijing knows it can win unequivocally, it's smart enough to know that talking-tough is the only thing it can do right now.

On a legal, constitutional level, (Z K I'm sure you understand this part), it also checks out.
The US references Taiwan post-1979 as a geographical entity only, including in legal bills/laws (i.e., TRA).
Similarly, the US, from time-to-time, is obligated diplomatically to reaffirm its commitment to the "One China Policy".
Regarding this, one might notice also that the US plays verbal dodgeball by mentioning Taiwan and China as geographical entities, rather than polities.
Saying "Taiwan is part of China" is not the same as saying "Taiwan is a part of the People's Republic of China".
The former is just barely vague enough where it can be interpreted in enough ways that keeps everyone in a "satisfactory" state:
1) Mainland China would interpret the statement as "Taiwan is a part of the PRC", seems legit
2) Taiwan would interpret the statement as "Taiwan is part of the Republic of China", seems legit enough
3) US would interpret the statement as "We have obliged to our end/commitment of the One China Policy", yeah, we legit.

Ambiguous.
Will the US defend Taiwan if it is attacked?
We can't know for sure, and it's probably better that way.
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      01-02-2019, 05:29 PM   #161
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Law View Post
Ambiguous.
Will the US defend Taiwan if it is attacked?
We can't know for sure, and it's probably better that way.
For ALL those involved, right?





(Do I at least get a star for class participation?)
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      01-02-2019, 10:37 PM   #162
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China landed a spacecraft on the other side of the moon...
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      01-03-2019, 07:48 AM   #163
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herdalum View Post
China landed a spacecraft on the other side of the moon...
we just visited a world billions of miles away.....
Nasa's New Horizons: 'Snowman' shape of distant Ultima Thule revealed http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-46742298
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      01-03-2019, 10:25 AM   #164
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herdalum View Post
China landed a spacecraft on the other side of the moon...
Fake News, can't see it with my tele
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      01-03-2019, 10:30 AM   #165
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleWede View Post
Fake News, can't see it with my tele
I agree! If you look closely at that pic of their “spacecraft on the dark side of the moon”, in the reflection you can see a little bit of the Great Wall!
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      01-03-2019, 10:41 AM   #166
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herdalum View Post
I agree! If you look closely at that pic of their “spacecraft on the dark side of the moon”, in the reflection you can see a little bit of the Great Wall!
But the GW IS visible from space





IF you have your aluminum hat on correctly, and believe the other fake news photos supposedly taken from orbit of our flat planet.
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      01-03-2019, 10:54 AM   #167
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleWede View Post
But the GW IS visible from space





IF you have your aluminum hat on correctly, and believe the other fake news photos supposedly taken from orbit of our flat planet.
But not the tourists walking on it.
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      01-03-2019, 10:56 AM   #168
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herdalum View Post
But not the tourists walking on it.
The bought one of those cool camera extensions for their iPhone off Facebook, too?
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      01-03-2019, 11:01 AM   #169
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UncleWede View Post
The bought one of those cool camera extensions for their iPhone off Facebook, too?
Well actually China is on the other side of the earth so it makes sense they could land on the other side of the moon...
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      01-03-2019, 11:06 AM   #170
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Herdalum View Post
Well actually China is on the other side of the earth so it makes sense they could land on the other side of the moon...
Dang, I'd forgotten all those times we tried to dig to China as a kid.
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      01-03-2019, 12:25 PM   #171
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Law View Post

Ambiguous.
Will the US defend Taiwan if it is attacked?
We can't know for sure, and it's probably better that way.
It is rather sad as Taiwan has operated as the ROC for 70 years and China comes out of no where and decides to claim it as part of itself - despite the original civil war having never been resolved.

It's sad but I don't think the US will defend Taiwan in a conflict unless there is other political or economic motivations behind it. China is way too powerful now to take on in a shooting war over pure ideological reasons.

With China's cyber warfare and influence operations, Taiwan may give up resistance eventually - no shooting needed... who knows.
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      01-03-2019, 01:36 PM   #172
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z K View Post
It is rather sad as Taiwan has operated as the ROC for 70 years and China comes out of no where and decides to claim it as part of itself - despite the original civil war having never been resolved.
UN Resolution 2758 was a mistake for that reason.
It, quite literally, retroactively rendered the ROC's existence null and void.
Legally, I'm not even sure how that was able to pass, but politically, it was a game where there was only one winner.

We can see how Beijing was able to leverage regimes of newly independent former colonies in Africa and the like (many whom were left/socialist-leaning), as well as the Eastern Bloc, to get their foot in the door. It makes sense, as it was quite easy for Communist China to pitch the idea to former colonies that the West and their allies are Imperialists.

I mentioned One Belt One Road in an earlier post because they intend to do the same thing in the future.
They can't make friends through merit so investing and giving out low interest loans with no strings attached (no need to good human rights record, etc.) to corrupt, poverty stricken regimes is a really quick way to build rapport and ensure that [long-term] you have trading & diplomatic partners in the future decades if/when shit hits the fan with the West.

Ideologically speaking, it's also quite easy for Beijing to pitch this to a corrupt third world regime and say "See? the West has been withholding aid & keeping your country oppressed because you don't conform to their standards. Well let us help you, no strings attached." Then it's China=Good/Friend, USA/West=Bad/Oppressors.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Z K View Post
It's sad but I don't think the US will defend Taiwan in a conflict unless there is other political or economic motivations behind it. China is way too powerful now to take on in a shooting war over pure ideological reasons.

With China's cyber warfare and influence operations, Taiwan may give up resistance eventually - no shooting needed... who knows.
More and more the scales are tipping in that direction.
The more time that passes, the less favorable it is to Taiwan.
Look at Xi's speech from New Years Day. The choice of words and the tone is much more firm and assertive than that of his predecessors (Hu and Jiang).
It's almost as if Xi is saying "I'm going to annex you [Taiwan] within my lifetime whether you like it or not."

In my experience, most Taiwanese low-key kind of acknowledge that reality, the reality of the tipping scales.
Both the hardcore pro-unification and hardcore independence folks are fringe groups in Taiwanese society.
The vast majority are somewhere in the middle (despite what polls/media say) and support maintaining the status quo of the current awkward ROC-PRC arrangement, as that's the only thing that can ensure survival of their current way of life.
Even the DPP these days reluctantly knows this. Their own party charter had an "independence clause" that was the stated objective of the party, but there has been no talk of "independence" for over 10 years.
They realized that type of rhetoric doesn't really sell to the Taiwanese.
They are regular human beings just like anyone else and just want basic needs (i.e., education, infrastructure, social needs, etc.) addressed, not identity politics.
The KMT made some very significant gains in the recent mid-term elections, and did so with a strategy that didn't directly speak of the identity/unification/independence issue, focusing instead on local issues, and it worked.

It would've been interesting if an arrangement like North and South Korea would've been agreed to decades ago when things were still more-or-less balanced, though neither Chiang Sr. or Chiang Jr. nor Mao or Deng would've agreed to that.
Nobody wanted to back down from the idea of an exclusive mandate.
Lee Teng-hui later proposed a two-state solution, but was crucified and criticized for promoting Taiwan Independence (up until that point, heads of states from both Taipei & Beijing saw the situation as a continuation of civil war).
Many of the OG members in the KMT distrusted Lee and were similarly criticized for not giving him a chance.
Of course, after Lee's expulsion from the KMT, it was later revealed that he not only harbored and supported Taiwan Independence, but also that he was an ex-Chinese Communist Party member.
In either case, Taiwan politics and the KMT would never fully recover from that debacle that culminated in multiple schisms and splits within the government, parties, and society.

If UN Resolution 2758 was the pivotal diplomatic moment, this [early 1990s] was the pivotal moment when the balance of the economic scales really tipped in mainland China's favor. Up until this point, Taiwan still more-or-less had a slight upper hand in all things economic, military, social, financial, academic, technical, etc. But with all this chaos within Taiwan's government during the time when the mainland was planting the seeds for its own boom, the writing was on the wall.
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      01-03-2019, 02:55 PM   #173
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Law View Post
In my experience, most Taiwanese low-key kind of acknowledge that reality, the reality of the tipping scales.
Both the hardcore pro-unification and hardcore independence folks are fringe groups in Taiwanese society.
The vast majority are somewhere in the middle (despite what polls/media say) and support maintaining the status quo of the current awkward ROC-PRC arrangement, as that's the only thing that can ensure survival of their current way of life.
Even the DPP these days reluctantly knows this. Their own party charter had an "independence clause" that was the stated objective of the party, but there has been no talk of "independence" for over 10 years.
They realized that type of rhetoric doesn't really sell to the Taiwanese.
They are regular human beings just like anyone else and just want basic needs (i.e., education, infrastructure, social needs, etc.) addressed, not identity politics.
The KMT made some very significant gains in the recent mid-term elections, and did so with a strategy that didn't directly speak of the identity/unification/independence issue, focusing instead on local issues, and it worked.

It would've been interesting if an arrangement like North and South Korea would've been agreed to decades ago when things were still more-or-less balanced, though neither Chiang Sr. or Chiang Jr. nor Mao or Deng would've agreed to that.
Nobody wanted to back down from the idea of an exclusive mandate.
Lee Teng-hui later proposed a two-state solution, but was crucified and criticized for promoting Taiwan Independence (up until that point, heads of states from both Taipei & Beijing saw the situation as a continuation of civil war).
Many of the OG members in the KMT distrusted Lee and were similarly criticized for not giving him a chance.
Of course, after Lee's expulsion from the KMT, it was later revealed that he not only harbored and supported Taiwan Independence, but also that he was an ex-Chinese Communist Party member.
In either case, Taiwan politics and the KMT would never fully recover from that debacle that culminated in multiple schisms and splits within the government, parties, and society.

If UN Resolution 2758 was the pivotal diplomatic moment, this [early 1990s] was the pivotal moment when the balance of the economic scales really tipped in mainland China's favor. Up until this point, Taiwan still more-or-less had a slight upper hand in all things economic, military, social, financial, academic, technical, etc. But with all this chaos within Taiwan's government during the time when the mainland was planting the seeds for its own boom, the writing was on the wall.
Hmm, I didn't know that about Lee Teng-hui.. It's too bad, a North/South Korea situation would have been good in treating this issue.. the problem would be finding support for this in the international community.

And yes, most people just want to get on with their every day lives. The economy is not doing well and there's other issues that affect people's every day lives. But the China situation isn't really an issue that can be ignored as it will affect their lives whether they want it to or not.
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      01-03-2019, 03:24 PM   #174
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US State Department issued a Chana travel warning today...

Quote:
Exercise increased caution in China due to arbitrary enforcement of local laws as well as special restrictions on dual U.S.-Chinese nationals.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-advisory.html
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      01-03-2019, 03:26 PM   #175
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Z K View Post
Hmm, I didn't know that about Lee Teng-hui.. It's too bad, a North/South Korea situation would have been good in treating this issue.. the problem would be finding support for this in the international community.
Yeah, Lee is an interesting one.
He had a point with his Two-States Theory but at the same time, it's hard to deny he was kind of an opportunist who wasn't really committed/loyal having had jumped ship across so many ideological lines/parties.
After his expulsion from the KMT though, he's only gotten more extreme (some say that's his true colors).
To this day, he remains the "Spiritual Chairman" of the Taiwan Solidarity Party, a fringe ultra-independence, pro-Japanese party where he often would visit Yasukuni Shrine with some of these members and not feel bad about it, even to point where he, in multiple instances, said the Diaoyu/Senkakus were Japanese territory and that Japan is the motherland of Taiwanese people...so yeah, he's all over the place.

A North/South Korea situation would've mirrored the F.R.Germany and the DDR arrangement of reconciliation and mutual respect/recognition.

I suppose the difference with Taiwan is that the main concern, be it with the Chiangs, or Mao/Deng, was that such an arrangement [of two-Chinas] would enable certain factions within Taiwan to detach from "China" and Chinese identity. Neither the KMT nor the Communists wanted that.

And lastly, in Chinese political ideology throughout the millennia, there's something called an exclusive mandate or mandate of heaven. Sounds lame to Western ears but really it's the idea that only one government can be legitimate/official at any given time. All others are considered rebels/bandits/illegitimate. To have a reconciled situation of mutual recognition would de-legitimize one's own existence, hence "One China Policy".

Quote:
Originally Posted by Z K View Post
And yes, most people just want to get on with their every day lives. The economy is not doing well and there's other issues that affect people's every day lives. But the China situation isn't really an issue that can be ignored as it will affect their lives whether they want it to or not.
Agreed.
It's been the elephant in the room ever since the end of WWII and the years following. A constant push-and-pull and a state of limbo.

October of this year will mark 70 years since the Reds declared their government atop the gate of Tiananmen, officially solidifying the divide.

70 years later, there's still no real solution in sight.
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      01-03-2019, 03:27 PM   #176
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Originally Posted by glennQNYC View Post
US State Department issued a Chana travel warning today...



https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-advisory.html
When are their laws not arbitrary? I had a good friend and their family travel there 2 years ago. I was not jealous.
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