[oonowindoo]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

I think EV infrastructure and battery tech will take a few decades to buildup and evolve, so ICE should be available in the interim.

Yup... especially in the US. The politics in the US IMO will prevent anything meaningful from being done in foreseeable future.


That is why it does not really matter what Audi and Merc are saying. US along with China are the biggest auto markets, until US is ready, they will just have to keep building ICE cars...

[TupperBMW]

Audi and Mercedes will be in the hole in 2030 while other manufacturers will still be selling ICE in droves. They are just virtue signaling

[Burrcold]

Originally Posted by TupperBMW

Audi and Mercedes will be in the hole in 2030 while other manufacturers will still be selling ICE in droves. They are just virtue signaling

Somehow I don't think so...

[giorgoXXI]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

I think EV infrastructure and battery tech will take a few decades to buildup and evolve, so ICE should be available in the interim.

I think battery manufacturing will be a bigger problem than charging infrastructure. At the moment car manufacturers are all fighting for a limited supply of batteries. A lot more raw materials are needed to reach ICE volumes.

2030 is certainly very ambitious, I think its more to appease shareholders than anything else. A bit like putting screens everywhere in the interior, its to create the impression the company is evolving, even if the actual experience is worse.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by giorgoXXI

I think battery manufacturing will be a bigger problem than charging infrastructure. At the moment car manufacturers are all fighting for a limited supply of batteries. A lot more raw materials are needed to reach ICE volumes.

2030 is certainly very ambitious, I think its more to appease shareholders than anything else. A bit like putting screens everywhere in the interior, its to create the impression the company is evolving, even if the actual experience is worse.

Issues of charging infrastructure are not just the charge ports, but the increased electricity demand and transmission and distribution.

3.8T kWh/year - US electricity consumption
3.2T miles/year - US total miles driven

Assuming 4 miles/kWh, 3.2T miles will require extra 0.8T kWh, or 25% extra electricity production. Also there needs to be expanded transmission and distribution, in addition to deployment of tons of charge ports.

And battery tech really needs to get to 5x density increase and 10x charge time reduction to make EVs feasible for the general mass.

[oonowindoo]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

Issues of charging infrastructure are not just the charge ports, but the increased electricity demand and transmission and distribution.

3.8T kWh/year - US electricity consumption
3.2T miles/year - US total miles driven

Assuming 4 miles/kWh, 3.2T miles will require extra 0.8T kWh, or 25% extra electricity production. Also there needs to be expanded transmission and distribution, in addition to deployment of tons of charge ports.

And battery tech really needs to get to 5x density increase and 10x charge time reduction to make EVs feasible for the general mass.

Those will be solved by 0-60 time. If you could accelerate fast enough, those are non-issues.

[madpistol]

Originally Posted by oonowindoo

Those will be solved by 0-60 time. If you could accelerate fast enough, those are non-issues.

I think we're talking about two different things here.

Battery Density = Efficiency
0-60 Time = Available Power.

EVs in their current form are plenty fast (at least the performance versions are), but they run out of power pretty fast as well... and once they do, you're spending 30-60 minutes at a Super Charger before you're able to get back on the road.

The energy density of a drop of gas outweighs any battery tech currently on the market... by a lot.

[oonowindoo]

I mean... i guess i should have used Red?

[madpistol]

Originally Posted by Burrcold

Somehow I don't think so...

Agreed. The Mercedes EQS is an amazing car, especially since it is their first effort at a full-size luxury EV. They're only going to get better from here.

[TupperBMW]

Originally Posted by madpistol

Agreed. The Mercedes EQS is an amazing car, especially since it is their first effort at a full-size luxury EV. They're only going to get better from here.

It got trashed in reviews though

I'm not saying that EVs can't be great cars. Of course they can. An EV is a wonderful drivetrain for a luxury vehicle, if quiet and smooth is your thing.

I'm just saying that for a major manufacturer to completely not sell ICE cars after 2030 whatsoever is just leaving money on the table for no reason.

[madpistol]

Originally Posted by TupperBMW

It got trashed in reviews though

I'm not saying that EVs can't be great cars. Of course they can. An EV is a wonderful drivetrain for a luxury vehicle, if quiet and smooth is your thing.

I'm just saying that for a major manufacturer to completely not sell ICE cars after 2030 whatsoever is just leaving money on the table for no reason.

All the reviews I've seen have been fantastic.

[TiMSport]

I'd like to add something that I haven't seen anyone mention yet. When the term "EV" is used, that doesn't entirely mean 100% electric if you will. I believe Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) and traditional hybrids can be categorized as an EV as well. As everyone knows, that is a combination of electric motors and ICE. I personally haven't bought into the notion of PHEV (came close when looking at a Volvo XC60 Polestar). I think this is an interim vehicle until going all-in on 100% electric.

Hell, maybe more importantly is the fact traditional "hybrids" are categorized as EV. You can clump the ubiquitous Toyota Prius into this group since it can go all electric even if it does have limitations, it does have the ability to drive in 100% electric mode, hence the classification as an EV.

I guess my point is there might be some folks not understanding all of the different "types" of EV there are and will be? I don't think it's a matter of the big auto manufacturers going the Tesla route just yet. Even if they are claiming they will, seeing is believing but I do think their intent is to do so. Make no mistake, these major auto manufacturers didn't just suddenly decide to develop EV, this has been in the works for many years now. That means they've already spent a ton of money for R&D. I was surprised to see some major collaborative efforts between what normally would be competitors in the automotive industry while visiting EV related exhibitions in Tokyo a number of years ago.

Now I may be completely wrong about this entire statement about what constitutes "EV", but if anyone is more knowledgeable about this, please chime in.

EDIT: I am probably wrong about hybrids. I think the goal for these companies include the eventual phasing out of hybrids, not only ICE. Doh.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by madpistol

I think we're talking about two different things here.

Battery Density = Efficiency
0-60 Time = Available Power.

EVs in their current form are plenty fast (at least the performance versions are), but they run out of power pretty fast as well... and once they do, you're spending 30-60 minutes at a Super Charger before you're able to get back on the road.

The energy density of a drop of gas outweighs any battery tech currently on the market... by a lot.

Correct.

The Tesla evangelist on this sub forum does not seem to understand the relationships of solar, fossil fuel, and efficiency.

[Burrcold]

Originally Posted by TupperBMW

I'm just saying that for a major manufacturer to completely not sell ICE cars after 2030 whatsoever is just leaving money on the table for no reason.

Trust me, if ICE powered vehicles are still going strong by 2030, huge companies like VAG are not going to leave anything on the table. Everything that manufacturers are saying right now regarding implementation timelines for full EV lineups is purely conjecture. We don't know what things will look like in 5-10 years, and either do they. They will pivot accordingly if needed.

[EXE46]

Originally Posted by bavarianride

Correct.

The Tesla evangelist on this sub forum does not seem to understand the relationships of solar, fossil fuel, and efficiency.

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by oonowindoo

Those will be solved by 0-60 time. If you could accelerate fast enough, those are non-issues.

It is true 0-60 is not directly related to energy density and charge time, but as madpistol alludes to, one gallon of gasoline is around 34kWh of energy.

So even at 35% efficiency, that gallon still produces 11kWh of output.

Coincidentally, my G20 is around 44+ mph on highway, or around 4 miles/kWh, just like Tesla.

In that regard, my G20 carries 16 gallons to travel 640+ miles, while Model 3 LR's 82kWh is around 7.5 gallons, of around 330-ish miles of range.

Also the 16 gallons take 2-3 minutes to refuel, while 82kWh takes 30+ minutes to reach 80%.

[G30M]

Originally Posted by Burrcold

Trust me, if ICE powered vehicles are still going strong by 2030, huge companies like VAG are not going to leave anything on the table. Everything that manufacturers are saying right now regarding implementation timelines for full EV lineups is purely conjecture. We don't know what things will look like in 5-10 years, and either do they. They will pivot accordingly if needed.

unless the Euro bans sale of non BEVs in 2030s. i think they are considering following the Boris Johnson in the UK - he banned sale of pure ICE in 2030 in the UK and ban sale of hybrids in 2035 in the UK.

Euro are meant to follow. if they do follow suit (i think they have to make sure all their countries are able to agree first) then it's possible German marquees will actually, for real, drop R&D on ICE, i guess they could still produce ICEs elsewhere to sell to the USA (and other parts of the world). if they don't then Japanese manufacturers will be laughing

PS Boris might not be around for long, so whether his successor will undo his ban ...

[madpistol]

Originally Posted by kiwinz

unless the Euro bans sale of non BEVs in 2030s. i think they are considering following the Boris Johnson in the UK - he banned sale of pure ICE in 2030 in the UK and ban sale of hybrids in 2035 in the UK.

Euro are meant to follow. if they do follow suit (i think they have to make sure all their countries are able to agree first) then it's possible German marquees will actually, for real, drop R&D on ICE, i guess they could still produce ICEs elsewhere to sell to the USA (and other parts of the world). if they don't then Japanese manufacturers will be laughing

PS Boris might not be around for long, so whether his successor will undo his ban ...

I applaud Boris Johnson for his push into the future, but I hope that the United States will not follow suit. There's a big difference between UK/EU and the United States; travel infrastructure. The UK and EU have a very robust mass transit system in place, while the US does not; most of the US is built around car and air travel, and there isn't much in between. The EU has lots of trains that are highly used and available.

Also, there's the size difference. The UK is a much smaller place than the US, and as it stands, the infrastructure needed to support a fully-electric car network would be astronomical compared to the currently built infrastructure for fuel-based vehicles. I'm sure it can be done, but we're talking trillions of dollars spent over the next 10-15 years to make that happen, and I'm not sure our current economy can support such a massive spend.

[TupperBMW]

^ Yep, and lets not forget the hail mary pass that is Porsche's project to develop carbon-neutral fuels for internal combustion engines:

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021...ile-25683.html

DAMN IT I want this to succeed so badly!

[bavarianride]

Originally Posted by madpistol

I'm sure it can be done, but we're talking trillions of dollars spent over the next 10-15 years to make that happen, and I'm not sure our current economy can support such a massive spend.

My take this will take at least 2 to 3 decades in the US.

[madpistol]

Originally Posted by TupperBMW

^ Yep, and lets not forget the hail mary pass that is Porsche's project to develop carbon-neutral fuels for internal combustion engines:

https://newsroom.porsche.com/en/2021...ile-25683.html

DAMN IT I want this to succeed so badly!

If Porsche (or any manufacturer) can develop a carbon-neutral fuel with a clean, highly-scalable manufacturing process, electric is DOA. Electric cars have massive issue in that the batteries used to power them require a lot of rather toxic processes to make them viable. I know some people hate fossil fuels, but there's no way that electric vehicles are clean by comparison when you factor in the battery manufacturing process and the environmental impact from mining the lithium required to produce said batteries.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enviro...20of%20lithium.

Let's also not forget that a good portion of the electricity sent to our homes is produced by coal, natural gas, petroleum, and other types that are not so great for the environment; you're literally trading one type of pollutant for another.

The only truly viable way forward for energy is either nuclear fission or nuclear fusion. Neither are perfect in that they product toxic waste, but that toxic waste is substantially smaller compared to the carbon footprint produced by other energy technologies, and if that waste is disposed of properly, it's a non-issue.

[adamg13]

If they made a coupe model 3 performance I probably would have made the move. I already have a charger in my garage and all that. I just can't get over the looks of the teslas (aside from the S, which is the only good looking one IMO). The 3 at least isn't malformed and mutated like the Y, but the performance model isn't differentiated much at all from the regular one - so out here in CA you'd just blend in with the 100s of long range model 3s you see every day. Just a really boring looking arched sedan to me. The interior is pretty much crap too! Some of the standard tech is solid, but it's also missing alot of stuff we're used to like HUD, ambient lighting, a sunroof that actually opens.

I say just get a 40i, spend $550 on a JB4 module for another 80hp, and you'll be pretty close. Yeah you'll still have to pay for gas, but who knows how long electricity will remain this cheap for? In los angeles the grid can't even keep up with our air conditioners for 1/3rd of the year, when all these EVs land they're going to have to find some way to deter excessive power consumption.