[KTN]

Originally Posted by movietub

Prepare to be upset then! BMW have this year spent more on R&D than ever before, and what might they be researching so hard??? Electric cars and last time I checked they actually don't have a transmission. Just a geared motor per driven wheel.

In 20 years time BMW won't be able to sell a car with a transmission, as no singular drive unit. It takes them 7 years to prepare a car for production. They won't be prepping a new IC car now for launch in 7 years time as it will by then be out of date and out performed at launch.

So brace for for upset, as right now they're spending billions on your brand new transmission free vehicle! Same as everyone else.

If that'll be the case it'll operate just fine without it. And on that note, it won't even be an IC car either like you said, so it's an entirely different topic.

To stick to the picture, If I ordered a fruit soup, I don't expect to find meat in it, neither will I be upset to not get any with it.

[movietub]

Originally Posted by KTN

If that'll be the case it'll operate just fine without it. And on that note, it won't have manual either, which is what we were discussing here, so it's an entirely different topic.

To stick to the picture, If I ordered a fruit soup, I don't expect to find meat in it, neither will I be upset to not get any with it.

It's not a different topic, it's the same topic but a new answer. To stick with your anology, you are about to find fruit where you once found meat. If in the next 20 years you want anything even close to 'high performance', it's going to be a very different recipe.

And most certainly won't come with a manual box. Or, a box.

The world moves fast these days, I'm not sure how much I like that. For what it's worth I think I liked the petrol head days of the 90s and early noughties more..

[KTN]

Originally Posted by movietub

It's not a different topic, it's the same topic but a new answer. To stick with your anology, you are about to find fruit where you once found meat. If in the next 20 years you want anything even close to 'high performance', it's going to be a very different recipe.

And most certainly won't come with a manual box. Or, a box.

The world moves fast these days, I'm not sure how much I like that. For what it's worth I think I liked the petrol head days of the 90s and early noughties more..

I somehow don't see over a billion of IC cars disappearing into thin air "so suddenly".

So while of course technology is progressing, I think IC engines are here to stay for a while, be that maybe in a hybrid setup if nothing else.

There's also the question how and could we handle the demand should the "entire population" of the world be racing about in 2 sec 0-100kph electric cars.

[movietub]

Originally Posted by KTN

I somehow don't see over a billion of IC cars disappearing into thin air so suddenly.

So while of course technology is progressing, I think IC engines are here to stay for a while, be that maybe in a hybrid setup if nothing else.

The burn rate of cars is very high. That billion cars is maintained only so long as new ones are added millions per year.

Ironically it's really the same as manual transmission. IC cars will likely stop production sooner than we anticipate for many manufacturers, as the production costs are so much higher than electric. Sama deal as BMW trying to carry on MT offerings in a world where most want AT.

I think for the next 10 years IC cars will be very common still, and could still be a sensible new car. Beyond that, you really have to start thinking of resale values in a world that will be running headline news about each manufacturer in turn that celebrates their final IC car.

[MT4life]

Originally Posted by movietub

The burn rate of cars is very high. That billion cars is maintained only so long as new ones are added millions per year.

Ironically it's really the same as manual transmission. IC cars will likely stop production sooner than we anticipate for many manufacturers, as the production costs are so much higher than electric. Sama deal as BMW trying to carry on MT offerings in a world where most want AT.

I think for the next 10 years IC cars will be very common still, and could still be a sensible new car. Beyond that, you really have to start thinking of resale values in a world that will be running headline news about each manufacturer in turn that celebrates their final IC car.

I might warm to the idea as long electric cars don't look anything soapbox California like Tesla with a giant iPad and ugly steering wheel. I immediately want to get wool socks and Tevas sandals when I see one

[///M4ster Yoda]

Asking for a friend. You guys think that John Q. Public is going to abandon ICE cars in the next 10 years?

Living the San Francisco dream I see

Not gonna happen. Definitely not gonna happen in 10 years that's Fo Sure!

[movietub]

Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda

Asking for a friend. You guys think that John Q. Public is going to abandon ICE cars in the next 10 years?

Living the San Francisco dream I see

Not gonna happen. Definitely not gonna happen in 10 years that's Fo Sure!

Nope, I think that the manufacturers will abandon them. Irrespective of what the consumer expects to happen.

And once they do, the consumer change of heart will follow so fast that you will be amazed. I admit I'm not blessed with superhuman powers and can't see the future. It's possible that in ten years time consumers might be so obsessed with IC cars that they have no interest whatsoever in a new car that costs the same to buy, nails 0-60 in 4 seconds or less and costs 1p/0.5c per mile to run. But I doubt it. I feel this is more like Nokia vs smartphones.


Well within the next ten years electric cars will entirely undermine the best efforts of ANY manufacturer that chooses to continue to develop IC cars. It's just so much easier to release performance from an electric motor than any IC engine. All that's missing is a suitable re-charging infrastructure, my gamble/bet is that within the next ten years that will be very much in place and no longer a concern at all.

[///M4ster Yoda]

.

[///M4ster Yoda]

Originally Posted by movietub

Nope, I think that the manufacturers will abandon them. Irrespective of what the consumer expects to happen.

And once they do, the consumer change of heart will follow so fast that you will be amazed. I admit I'm not blessed with superhuman powers and can't see the future. It's possible that in ten years time consumers might be so obsessed with IC cars that they have no interest whatsoever in a new car that costs the same to buy, nails 0-60 in 4 seconds or less and costs 1p/0.5c per mile to run. But I doubt it. I feel this is more like Nokia vs smartphones.


Well within the next ten years electric cars will entirely undermine the best efforts of ANY manufacturer that chooses to continue to develop IC cars. It's just so much easier to release performance from an electric motor than any IC engine. All that's missing is a suitable re-charging infrastructure, my gamble/bet is that within the next ten years that will be very much in place and no longer a concern at all.

I'm going to respectfully disagree.

Manufactures DO NOT tell consumers what they should buy. It's the consumers that tell manufacturers what they want to spend their hard earned money on. Plain and Simple.

What Happens when consumers give the big auto manufacturers the middle finger regarding electric vehicles and decide not to purchase them in droves as expected????

[ScottAndrew]

Originally Posted by movietub

I think for the next 10 years IC cars will be very common still, and could still be a sensible new car. Beyond that, you really have to start thinking of resale values in a world that will be running headline news about each manufacturer in turn that celebrates their final IC car.

I think most people running IC cars aren’t bothered about resale value. That’s only really a problem for affluent middle classes worrying about being seen driving a car that’s getting on a bit. They’re vastly outnumbered by people who want transport.

[10"]

I'd rather drive something that did a quarter mile in 16 seconds....but did it with some enthusiasm rather than an automatic appliance that was fast and numb. Statistics mean nothing...

[10"]

Originally Posted by movietub

Nope, I think that the manufacturers will abandon them. Irrespective of what the consumer expects to happen.

And once they do, the consumer change of heart will follow so fast that you will be amazed. I admit I'm not blessed with superhuman powers and can't see the future. It's possible that in ten years time consumers might be so obsessed with IC cars that they have no interest whatsoever in a new car that costs the same to buy, nails 0-60 in 4 seconds or less and costs 1p/0.5c per mile to run. But I doubt it. I feel this is more like Nokia vs smartphones.


Well within the next ten years electric cars will entirely undermine the best efforts of ANY manufacturer that chooses to continue to develop IC cars. It's just so much easier to release performance from an electric motor than any IC engine. All that's missing is a suitable re-charging infrastructure, my gamble/bet is that within the next ten years that will be very much in place and no longer a concern at all.

People trapped in bubbles generally need a reality check. Here is yours:

In 2011, electric cars made up 0.14% of US car sales

In 2017, electric cars made up 1.13% of US car sales.

That is the speed of increase. Will it rise? YES. Will most people buy into it? NO. By 2040 will 50% of the car market be electric? POSSIBLY....but not certainly.

[FastF30]

Originally Posted by 10"

By 2040 will 50% of the car market be electric? POSSIBLY

Very possible once battery technology advances and you can charge as fast as you can fill up on petrol.... Until then I won't be buying one...

On another note.... a 20 year old car still runs if you put fresh petrol etc in it.... 20 year old battery is useless just do to shelf-life and too costly to replace...

[movietub]

Originally Posted by 10"

I'd rather drive something that did a quarter mile in 16 seconds....but did it with some enthusiasm rather than an automatic appliance that was fast and numb. Statistics mean nothing...

Drag racing is surely all about one of the biggest statistics in the motoring world, the quarter mile time..

[movietub]

Originally Posted by 10"

By 2040 will 50% of the car market be electric? POSSIBLY....but not certainly.

50% of the cars on the road probably won't be electric, but well over 50% of the 'market' will certainly be.

US market/brands are likely to be a little different, but other territories have already set dates for ban on sales and/or manufacture of ICE cars. Many well ahead of 2040, I think 2030 is average. But no manufacturer in those countries (essentially all European manufactures) will wait until the ban date and then suddenly swap to selling electric. As the ban dates approach they know people will suddenly become super wary of resale values of ICE cars. For so many reasons the change that is currently happening slowly, will start to snow ball.

There may be far less news/action on this in USA right now (outside of CA), but of course, most car firms are global these days so none will be unaffected by the changes. For example, BMW are not going to carry on making ICE cars if they can only sell them in a fraction of territories around the globe, even if one of them is USA. They need volume products that they can sell anywhere.

[///M4ster Yoda]

Originally Posted by movietub

50% of the cars on the road probably won't be electric, but well over 50% of the 'market' will certainly be.

US market/brands are likely to be a little different, but other territories have already set dates for ban on sales and/or manufacture of ICE cars. Many well ahead of 2040, I think 2030 is average. But no manufacturer in those countries (essentially all European manufactures) will wait until the ban date and then suddenly swap to selling electric. As the ban dates approach they know people will suddenly become super wary of resale values of ICE cars. For so many reasons the change that is currently happening slowly, will start to snow ball.

There may be far less news/action on this in USA right now (outside of CA), but of course, most car firms are global these days so none will be unaffected by the changes. For example, BMW are not going to carry on making ICE cars if they can only sell them in a fraction of territories around the globe, even if one of them is USA. They need volume products that they can sell anywhere.

These ICE bans that some countries are attempting to implement by a set date are not gonna happen.

What will happen is these counties will continue to "push" these target dates back again and again.

Overzealous idiotic Politicians!

[10"]

Originally Posted by movietub

Drag racing is surely all about one of the biggest statistics in the motoring world, the quarter mile time..

A meaningless one...

Say tell me what is the 1/4 mile time of a Lancia Stratos, E30 M3, Audi Quattro, 911 Carrera RS?

That's right. Nobody cares at all. Great cars aren't made by statistics they're made by HOW they drive...

[MT4life]

Originally Posted by 10"

A meaningless one...

Say tell me what is the 1/4 mile time of a Lancia Stratos, E30 M3, Audi Quattro, 911 Carrera RS?

That's right. Nobody cares at all. Great cars aren't made by statistics they're made by HOW they drive...

But didn't we all grow up with Vin Diesel?

"I live my life a quarter mile at a time. Nothing else matters: not the mortgage, not the store, not my team and all their bullshit. For those ten seconds or less, I'm free."

Because Dom would definitely drive an automatic-only, $55K family sedan with vinyl seats and digital PS4 dash and fake exhaust tips which aren't even extensions of the actual exhaust

[Transfer]

I'm sorry but 1/4 mile times and associated trap speeds do matter to a lot of people even if the specific numbers are not common knowledge. I don't care how many electric or gas powered hand jobs a car can give me when I tickle the accelerator if it can't do 1/4 mile in less than 15 seconds trapping at least 100 mph. While many drivers don't know those numbers or what they mean, if they've driven quick cars they'll know the difference.

[hans007]

Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda

I'm going to respectfully disagree.

Manufactures DO NOT tell consumers what they should buy. It's the consumers that tell manufacturers what they want to spend their hard earned money on. Plain and Simple.

What Happens when consumers give the big auto manufacturers the middle finger regarding electric vehicles and decide not to purchase them in droves as expected????

Exactly...

if manufacturers drove purchasing, there wouldn't be 500 SUVs for sale in the US because we would have bought the manual diesel wagons they offer in other countries instead.

[ScottAndrew]

Originally Posted by hans007

Exactly...

if manufacturers drove purchasing, there wouldn't be 500 SUVs for sale in the US because we would have bought the manual diesel wagons they offer in other countries instead.

the brown, turbo-oiler RWD one? The one enthusiasts are always saying they want?

1/4 mile times don't mean much to people on this side of the pond. They will always be important to some, but not many. It certainly doesn't drive product development in the way that it does in the USA.

[ScottAndrew]

Originally Posted by MT4life

But didn't we all grow up with Vin Diesel?

I grew up surrounded by diesel, if that counts...

Because Dom would definitely drive an automatic-only, $55K family sedan with vinyl seats and digital PS4 dash and fake exhaust tips which aren't even extensions of the actual exhaust

Still scratching around with that one...? it’s keep-up-with-the-compo from now on!