Bimmerpost
BMW Garage BMW Meets Register Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read
BIMMERPOST Universal Forums Off-Topic Discussions Board Politics/Religion I think Tesla will be gone in ten years

Post Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
      06-28-2020, 09:29 AM   #4445
F32Fleet
Major General
F32Fleet's Avatar
United_States
2235
Rep
8,797
Posts

Drives: 2015 435i
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Southeastern US

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Automotive Enthusiast View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
I often think to myself maybe you need to be crazy to achieve certain things. I mean normal sane people don't wake up one day and say hey, I'm going to start an aerospace company. Even if you did a normal person would just go nah that's crazy and move on.

I personally think the guy is bat shit crazy and I cannot stand listening to him speak, but what he has accomplished with SpaceX and Tesla is pretty amazing.
Normal people work 9-5 and live paycheck to paycheck.

It's the crazy people that take a leap of faith that succeed. Elon was living in his car and getting million dollar investments from people to get Tesla going.
Hmm.. Elon was a multimillionaire by 1998 and had an 11% stake in PayPal who bought another company of his for $1.4B in 2002.
__________________
"Drive more, worry less. "

435i, MPPK, MPE, M-Sport Line
Appreciate 0
      06-28-2020, 11:41 AM   #4446
jmg
Major General
jmg's Avatar
United_States
8918
Rep
9,997
Posts

Drives: F80 M3 CS, I01 i3 REx LCI
Join Date: Mar 2013
Location: Orange County, CA

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
Quote:
Originally Posted by Efthreeoh View Post
I've been saying this for over a decade on this forum. But I also think IIHS has the "planning and deciding" factor backwards. It's not that computers will obey traffic laws and not speed, it that computers cannot predict imperfect human behavior. Humans who understand what it means to be human, thus prone to irrational thought, can better predict and plan for what other drivers may do. But we as a driving society do not train young drivers to predict and plan. Our drivers Ed programs do not teach traffic placement. We do not teach how to interact with other drivers in advance of what they may do. We simply do not teach traffic preparedness. Computers, even with AI, will be no better at traffic preparedness than humans.

This is why integration of true level 5 autonomous vehicles will increase accident statistics. Autonomous cars can react to driving situations because they never tire, get bored, or distracted as humans do, but autonomous vehicles can't be prepared to react as well as humans can be taught and trained to do. All we need to do is up-level driver training, require refresher courses (not at the event of a point assessment threshold), and make it harder to get and retain a driver's license. Leaving it to computers is stupid, and a pipe dream.
For every instance of autonomous driving failing, there are hundreds of instances of human error. Accidents won't disappear, but they will be greatly reduced.
__________________
2018 F80 ///M3 CS - Lime Rock Grey Metallic | MPHAS | GC Camber Plates
2019 I01 i3 BEV - Giga World
Previous: F80 M3 | I01 i3 Rex LCI | I01 i3 REx | F30 340i M Sport ZTR | F30 328i Sport | Audi B7 S4 25Quattro #33 of 250 | E21 320i
Appreciate 0
      06-28-2020, 11:55 AM   #4447
dreamingat30fps
Major
United_States
1397
Rep
1,443
Posts

Drives: 2018 Tesla Model 3, 2017 F350
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: South Florida

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Hmm.. Elon was a multimillionaire by 1998 and had an 11% stake in PayPal who bought another company of his for $1.4B in 2002.
Yeah I've never heard this living in his car thing. From what I've read about him he's been pretty loaded since the dotcom bubble.
Appreciate 0
      06-28-2020, 02:55 PM   #4448
KRS_SN
Captain
721
Rep
769
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

when I drive my x5 or my 335 i feel superior to the guy next door who drives a x3 and 320d in terms of driving choices.
The guy who drives a tesla probably thinks he is superior to us all by having a faster 0-60 saving the planet etc. Just like I live by my choices he must too.
All I know is that 7 years after buying my x5 its worth 22k less than what I paid for it and 4 years after I bought the 335 it's worth 13k less than what I paid for it with no discernible difference in performance.
The interior on mine is better than the tesla but the tech is probably ancient but works flawlessly as there isn't much.
Appreciate 0
      06-28-2020, 03:14 PM   #4449
Teutonic
Lieutenant Colonel
Teutonic's Avatar
No_Country
1148
Rep
1,640
Posts

Drives: BMW
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Automotive Enthusiast View Post
I just lost every single braincell that I had.
Late, but I realized that too...
Appreciate 0
      06-28-2020, 03:22 PM   #4450
Teutonic
Lieutenant Colonel
Teutonic's Avatar
No_Country
1148
Rep
1,640
Posts

Drives: BMW
Join Date: Feb 2012
Location: Canada

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier View Post
I was educating you because you made it clear that you didn't realize there has been a federal excise tax on gasoline for nearly 90 years. I actually edited my response before posting because I didn't want jump all over you for making this mistake. Admittedly I didn't expect that you're so stuck on stupid that you couldn't acknowledge your ignorance. That was my failure. I see how little of a person you are now.
Believe me, do not bother... It is not worth it.
You are much much better than that.
Appreciate 0
      06-28-2020, 05:07 PM   #4451
The Automotive Enthusiast
Retired BMW Genius
The Automotive Enthusiast's Avatar
United_States
2538
Rep
3,407
Posts

Drives: 2018 Audi S5 Coupe
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: DMV

iTrader: (1)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Yeah I've never heard this living in his car thing. From what I've read about him he's been pretty loaded since the dotcom bubble.
He said it in an interview. I shall try to find it.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by LucBroDude View Post
TRAITOR.
Quote:
Originally Posted by LucBroDude View Post
TRAITOR.
Appreciate 0
      06-29-2020, 02:55 AM   #4452
AlpineWhite_SJ
Slayer of dumb ~ IG: d0ctajones
AlpineWhite_SJ's Avatar
United_States
1420
Rep
972
Posts

Drives: 2018 F80 M3 ZCP, 2020 F97 X3MC
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Bay Area, CA

iTrader: (0)

Elon must have been pumping things out since opening up again. Saw 10+ car carriers with assorted models heading over from Gilroy to I-5 today.
__________________
///M I have F80 and F97 Stuff...///M

Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
He “lasers” plenty of people over a ton of stuff. He’s a veteran of these parts, he can take it.
Appreciate 1
GrussGott9753.50

      06-29-2020, 02:58 AM   #4453
AlpineWhite_SJ
Slayer of dumb ~ IG: d0ctajones
AlpineWhite_SJ's Avatar
United_States
1420
Rep
972
Posts

Drives: 2018 F80 M3 ZCP, 2020 F97 X3MC
Join Date: Sep 2017
Location: Bay Area, CA

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Yeah I've never heard this living in his car thing. From what I've read about him he's been pretty loaded since the dotcom bubble.
And he crashed a Mclaren. Doubt he was living in a car at any point unless by choice. SpaceX was 24 hrs away from not making payroll though...
__________________
///M I have F80 and F97 Stuff...///M

Quote:
Originally Posted by minn19 View Post
He “lasers” plenty of people over a ton of stuff. He’s a veteran of these parts, he can take it.
Appreciate 0
      06-29-2020, 08:21 AM   #4454
F32Fleet
Major General
F32Fleet's Avatar
United_States
2235
Rep
8,797
Posts

Drives: 2015 435i
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Southeastern US

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Automotive Enthusiast View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Yeah I've never heard this living in his car thing. From what I've read about him he's been pretty loaded since the dotcom bubble.
He said it in an interview. I shall try to find it.
Ya, well don't believe him.
__________________
"Drive more, worry less. "

435i, MPPK, MPE, M-Sport Line
Appreciate 0
      06-29-2020, 05:17 PM   #4455
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
9754
Rep
8,035
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2011 E93 M3  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by AlpineWhite_SJ View Post
Elon must have been pumping things out since opening up again. Saw 10+ car carriers with assorted models heading over from Gilroy to I-5 today.
They're pushing to make end-of-quarter delivery numbers - Elon sent out an email to staff today saying, "breaking even is looking super tight", looking for a huge push in production and delivery.

Different topic, while nobody can know the future, we can look at the data and make calculated projections just like sending rockets into orbit - and the calculated projection for the oil/gas industry ain't looking good:

Whiting Petroleum
Status: Cut cap budget 30% for 2020, filed for bankruptcy, looking to eliminate $2.2B in debt, moderate production cuts

Devon Energy
Status: Cut cap budget by 45%, cutting production by 10%+
Note: I used to own a lot of Devon by my standards from ~2000 for 12 years - did awesome!

Apache
Status: Cut cap budget by 50%, ~100 layoffs, cutting dividend by 90%

Chesapeake Energy
Status: Cut 2020 cap budget by 30%, ~200+ layoffs, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy, projecting production decreases

Continental Resources
Status: Cut cap budget by 50%, potential layoffs, cut its dividend, production cuts of 30%

Diamondback Energy
Status: Cut cap budget by 40%, preparing further cuts, cutting production by 15%

Halliburton
Status: cut cap budget by 50%, 2,700 layoffs

Occidental Petroleum
Status: Cut cap budget by 50%+, salary cuts for staff, suspended its dividend

Schlumberger
Status: cut cap budget by 30%, furloughing staff for 20% reduction, some 15%-20% pay cuts, cut dividend by 75%, cutting production to 2016 levels

EOG Resources
Status: Cut cap budget by 46%, cut production by 15%

Phillips 66
Status: Cutting cap/SG&A by 10%, deferring new projects

ConocoPhillips
Status: Cut cap budget by 35%, production cuts are on-going on an increasing basis

Equinor
Status: Cut cap budget by 20%, cutting dividend by 70%, halting current US production

Eni
Status: Cut cap budget by 30%, cutting production by 15%

BP
Status: Cut cap budget by 25%, 15% layoffs, cutting production ongoing

Total
Status: Cut cap budget by 25%, freezing hiring, cutting production on-going

Royal Dutch Shell
Status: Cut cap budget by 25%, offering voluntary sev & cutting hiring and contractors, cutting it dividend (1st time since WWII), cutting production on an on-going basis

Chevron
Status: Cutting cap budget by 25%+, 15%+ layoffs, cutting production to 2019 levels

ExxonMobil
Status: Cut cap budget by 30%, 10% layoffs, cutting production by 10%

In short this is a historic blow to the entire petroleum industry that, even in the best case, will not quickly bounce back. This will likely mean huge volatility in energy/fuel prices and likely, at some point, a large rise in prices as the supply chain slows and/or stops in many places. Capacity does not easily or quickly come back online especially since we haven't yet seen the downstream effects on suppliers and/or retailers (and unfortunately the overall economic bad news has likely only barely started - wave 2 starts in aug)


Anybody with a Tesla car/roof will, of course, see no energy/fuel price increases, no supply disruptions, and with V2G technology will see increased household revenue.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      06-30-2020, 03:36 PM   #4456
KRS_SN
Captain
721
Rep
769
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

https://www.theguardian.com/business...-55bn-pay-deal
Appreciate 1
530iDriver1554.50

      06-30-2020, 03:44 PM   #4457
Sedan_Clan
Law Enforcer
Sedan_Clan's Avatar
Brazil
6227
Rep
16,607
Posts

Drives: '17 Nardo Grey M4
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: On 2 wheels clipping an apex!

iTrader: (26)

Quote:
Originally Posted by heavyD^2 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Automotive Enthusiast View Post
What are you going to do when every car manufacture is electric? Walk? Bike? Don't be ignorant.

Electric is the future. Embrace it now.
I prefer to live one day at a time and embrace the present. We are still 15 years or more from every manufacturer being all electric. Maybe some of you want to FFW your lives to the day when BMW offers all electric but IMO life is short and I'm enjoying the fantastic ICE powered vehicles we have to select from today. I will worry about the future when it comes if I'm so lucky to be around for it.
Longer than that.
Appreciate 2
530iDriver1554.50
Efthreeoh7401.50

      06-30-2020, 04:10 PM   #4458
530iDriver
Colonel
530iDriver's Avatar
United_States
1555
Rep
2,345
Posts

Drives: 2017 BMW 530i
Join Date: May 2018
Location: Florida

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
Elon is such a nice guy!.
__________________
2017 BMW 530i, Sport Line,Alpine White, Canberra Beige Sensatec, 19 inch V-Spoke wheels, basic plain Jane build with no options whatsoever..... "Less is more".

Before: 2011 BMW 328i E90 sedan, Platinum Bronze Metallic, Dakota Brown leather, 17 inch wheels, 6-speed auto, N52 6 Cyl inline N/A goodness....
Appreciate 1
KRS_SN720.50

      06-30-2020, 04:18 PM   #4459
KRS_SN
Captain
721
Rep
769
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

plenty of coal n petrol n shale underneath our feet. lithium etc not so much. Perhaps spacex best used to find planet x made of lithium so that it can be brought back to earth and once depleted can be shipped back to planet x?
Appreciate 1
Efthreeoh7401.50

      07-01-2020, 05:32 AM   #4460
Efthreeoh
Lieutenant General
United_States
7402
Rep
14,539
Posts

Drives: E90 & Z4 Coupe
Join Date: May 2012
Location: MARLAND

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by F32Fleet View Post
Hmm.. Elon was a multimillionaire by 1998 and had an 11% stake in PayPal who bought another company of his for $1.4B in 2002.
Maybe it was a Rolls Royce...
__________________
A manual transmission can be set to "comfort", "sport", and "track" modes simply by the technique and speed at which you shift it; it doesn't need "modes", modes are for manumatics that try to behave like a real 3-pedal manual transmission. If you can money-shift it, it's a manual transmission. "Yeah, but NO ONE puts an automatic trans shift knob on a manual transmission."
Appreciate 1
F32Fleet2234.50

      07-02-2020, 10:29 PM   #4461
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
9754
Rep
8,035
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2011 E93 M3  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Noted! You can count on me to remind you every time Tesla sales increase
Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
Are you going to drive the Beaver/Pig Nose "BMW"?
O/T: I just can't do it, it's too ugly I'm prolly going X3MC - some super awesome deals out there right now! But I have a feeling they'll get better by fall when I have to make a choice (or I may rent a car for a few months and see how pricing plays out - I can say for certain I won't be getting a Tesla )

BTW - July update, still no plateau

Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
plenty of coal n petrol n shale underneath our feet. lithium etc not so much. Perhaps spacex best used to find planet x made of lithium so that it can be brought back to earth and once depleted can be shipped back to planet x?
It's a flawed assumption that electric-storage requires lithium batteries and, more importantly, TODAY'S lithium battery tech (which grow little stalactites causing battery failure). There are no fewer than 20 non-lithium battery startups within 50 miles of me that all have actual working batteries in testing. Hell, even Nikola is using hydrogen fuel cells for their 300 mile+ vehicles and offering dual fuel on their Bager pickup.

Beyond that, there's all kinds of other technology being used for larger electric needs like peaker plants, including the storage tech Warren Buffett's solar plant is using (and as I've said, Buffett is no startup guy). In those cases the use-case isn't many-fast-cycles like lithium, it's more deep storage and lithium isn't the best at that.

And beyond that there's city and region size gravity and thermal storage tech that's in pilot.

Net-net: in 15 years, most batteries probably won't use lithium - electrical power is an industry in its infancy and the tech and efficiency will improve exponentially because that's where all the money is going


"there are developments that may help us replace oil... like big tobacco ... they'll start turning the pumps off"
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 07-02-2020 at 10:38 PM..
Appreciate 3
jmg8918.00
KRS_SN720.50

      07-03-2020, 12:24 AM   #4462
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
9754
Rep
8,035
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2011 E93 M3  [0.00]
Quote:
Originally Posted by dreamingat30fps View Post
Yeah I've never heard this living in his car thing. From what I've read about him he's been pretty loaded since the dotcom bubble.
I don't know about living in his car but he did literally invest down to his last $1 in (buying) Tesla.
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      07-03-2020, 02:48 AM   #4463
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
9754
Rep
8,035
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2011 E93 M3  [0.00]
Lightbulb

Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
People on this forum keep saying it's the future. According to whom?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier View Post
acknowledge that no one knows what's in our future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
plenty of coal n petrol n shale underneath our feet.
No one knows the future, but many people are making accurate data-driven projections ... FWIW, thought I'd take a sec to address "the future" - it's not a random unknowable:

We can use data to make accurate projections just a like a sniper who, given known variables like gravity, wind, etc can reliably hit targets 1500 yards away repeatedly. We can do that here too ... So give me a sec: imma go a little deep in the data to explain why oil is fucked.

TLDR: because there's no money to be made in oil, and by the time there is, renewables will be way cheaper (and thus way more profitable) which is why Warren Buffett is buying into one of largest solar generating fields on the planet.

Why Oil is Fucked - A Bedtime Story

To understand why, I gotta get a stitch deep into business and finance: Our story starts with a thing called The Leveraged Buyout or LBO.

Basically an investor group, possibly including existing management, borrows money (leverage) to purchase all outstanding shares of a company and take it private. The trick is, they put that debt back onto the company they just purchased, pay themselves huge fat fees, and also own a massive piece of the new business!

If the new debt-laden business goes bankrupt, GREAT! The LBO group still owns the underlying assets, so they erase the debt, and pay themselves fat fees to re-org and emerge from bankruptcy; or they part-out and sell off the company and pay themselves fat fees for facilitating the sale. Or if the company manages to pay off the debt, GREAT! They own a super valuable asset!

Seeing a pattern here? If not, it's heads I win, tails you lose: the LBO group (called "Private Equity" these days), if they're 10% competent, always wins. And, of course, these deals are always devastating for the employees, because in order to pay off all the debt you gotta cut costs and the easiest way to do that is cut employees, cut quality, defer maintenance, etc.
In short, here's an LBO:
(1.) ///M4ster Yoda and I start a PE firm by each kicking in $1M (maybe we even borrowed that!)
(2.) We raise another $2M from people on this thread for a total of $4M
(3.) We find a weakling company we value at, say, $100M
(4.) We use our $4M to borrow $130M, buy the company, pay ourselves $10M each, the rest of you $8M (100%+ return!), and the other $2M goes to buy off management and the board (so they agree to the $100M purchase!)
(5.) We pay ourselves fat fees for "management advice", board salaries, etc and keep milking the fucker until it dies or we exit.
Wash, rinse, repeat. Because that's what's up: we're barbarians and KingmuthafuckinKong, BITCH!
These PE jackals are always on the hunt for vulnerable companies - they love companies with dependable cash flow because it's what's appealing to all the people lending you the money in the first place (usually via junk bonds, i.e., high-yield debt). Plus, once the company is private, you might be able to sell fast to a greater fool who sees the cash flow and ignores the debt. Notice I didn't say "make a profit!", just cash flow! Because that's the story to lenders: "We'll create so much efficiency and all that cash flow will become huge profit!"

The PE jackals don't give a shit if their new company is profitable or not - they already made fat dime on the acquisition, so whatever happens after is just gravy.



WTF does this have to do with oil???

Well, guess who has lots of cash flow (and not profits)? Oil! Specifically shale ... which is NEW! ... with lots of inefficiency!



And who loves vulnerable companies with cashflow that can be purchased with high-yield debt? Private Equity Jackals - check out that junk bond explosion in shale!



So what, right? Well even before COVID19, all these debt-laden shale oil companies were heading for liquidity and solvency problems with a $100B wall of debt - all within 7 years!



And now this year with the oil price war, but even without it, nobody can make a profit:



So there's got to be bankruptcies, collapses, and industry consolidation ... BEFORE COVID, but now with a price war and demand collapse the problem is much worse.

Here's the point:
The oil industry is fucked; there's no money to be made due to all the debt, cheap shale oil, and a price war. That mess isn't going to be cleaned up for years even with 100% cooperation from OPEC which won't happen, so plan on 10 years.

According to whom??

Well, Warren Buffett has ~$15B of Phillips 66 (~10% of his portfolio), and owns Berkshire-Hathaway Energy (~10% of his revenue, ~$20B, 23k emp) so he knows energy and is deeply invested in it. Here's what he did in 2015:

Berkshire-Hathaway Energy: World Leader in Solar
BHE Solar’s Solar Star projects were completed in 2015. The projects... provide enough electricity to power approximately 255,000 average California households.

And now in 2020 Buffett did this:
The Trump administration announced [in Jan 2020] final approval this week of the largest solar energy project ever granted in the U.S., and one of the biggest in the world, despite objections from conservationists .... The $1 billion Gemini solar and battery storage project about 30 miles (48 kilometers) northeast of Las Vegas is expected to produce 690 megawatts of electricity — enough to power 260,000 households ... Coupled with a 380-megawatt AC battery storage system, the project will be one of the first in Nevada to include batteries to enable power delivery after the sun goes down. The project would become the eighth-largest solar plant in the world

Why is Buffett going big in renewables??


Because Buffett sees the writing on the wall - renewable technology has arrived:

Oil is profit-dead for a decade and solar - in its infancy - is already at parity or cheaper than oil - which means in 5-10 years solar, and its required storage technology, i.e., batteries, will be WAY cheaper than a shale oil well (which is fast to start but very expensive) or a deep-sea well which costs billions and takes 4-5 years - and COVID19 is only exacerbating this problem by dropping demand through the floor. And if shale can't make a profit dumping supply into full market, sure-as-fuck nobody else is making a profit either. Supply and demand.

So it's counterintuitive, but cheap oil = dead oil.

When we account for the forces driving the oil market variables, the sniper says by the end of the decade, oil will be a mostly industrial product and new power and new cars will be primarily BEV or other technologies. That's why it's already in the auto manufacturers 5 year plans. That's why the CEO of Porsche said in January there's "no possibility we're deviating from plan - the roadmap is set and it's what we'll stick with", and all this ignores that software is taking over the auto industry: both manufacturing (e.g., Tesla new patented assembly robot) and inside the car for power and systems management (e.g., Tesla's 400+ mile range OTA update), as well as on-demand options and services.

So confidence in "the electric future" is simply because there is no foreseeable economic force that stops it.

congrats if you made it this far!
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.

Last edited by GrussGott; 07-03-2020 at 09:17 PM..
Appreciate 0
      07-04-2020, 12:06 PM   #4464
USA-RET
Captain
USA-RET's Avatar
462
Rep
776
Posts

Drives: Estoril Blue M240i
Join Date: Feb 2017
Location: SW Florida

iTrader: (0)

Certainly Tesla has problems with fit and finish issues. Yet nearly all owners are very happy with their cars.

https://insideevs.com/features/40360...sfaction-rate/

QC appears to be getting better as manufacturing processes improve. Given more time one would think much of the things people complain about will be rectified.

One could argue Tesla has done remarkable things in the 11 years they have been in the market. Starting from dirt, Tesla has become the global leader in EV production and sales. Every other manufacturer is playing catch-up.

Every head to head comparison when a Tesla is compared to another company's EV, the Tesla seems to win.

Ford, GM and others have had manufacturing for decades longer (and if you read the Corvette forums) there are still plenty of complaints about fit and finish of their halo sports car). So one would expect their paint and assembly should be better than a newly formed car company.

Plenty of people rooting for Tesla to fail. Time will tell.
Appreciate 0
      07-04-2020, 10:10 PM   #4465
GrussGott
Major General
GrussGott's Avatar
United_States
9754
Rep
8,035
Posts

Drives: 2018 M4 Comp Indv
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Newport Beach

iTrader: (0)

Garage List
2011 E93 M3  [0.00]
BMW starting to get it:
Cars are more full of computers and software than ever before, which has made it possible for automakers to add new features or patch problems on the fly with over-the-air software updates. This has also presented these automakers with new ways of making money. Take Tesla, which pioneered them and currently sells access to a variety of features after purchase. It even used to ship cars with battery packs that had their range limited by software, and owners could pay a fee unlock the full capacity.

BMW now wants to take this to a far more specific level. The German automaker announced on Wednesday that all cars equipped with its newest “Operating System 7” software will soon receive an update that makes it possible for the company to tinker with all sorts of functions in the car, like access to heated seats and driving assist features like automatic high beams or adaptive cruise control. And the company unsurprisingly plans to use this ability to make money.

All the people thinking the majors will suddenly catch up to Tesla don't understand the innovator's dilemma nor business history - here's the net-net:

All the majors have to simultaneously re-tool their entire corporate structures, create entirely product lines with entirely new technology, and code new software to run their manufacturing, their power systems, and their consumer systems. And they have to do all this while still maintaining their existing products and hopefully trying to make a profit. This is very expensive and requires new teams. Corporations aren't monoliths, they're a loose group of infighting divisions who don't like new groups to compete with ... especially when the newbies are taking precious capex and eating into their team's margins ... so the legacy division execs smile-fuck the newbies to the boss and then back-stab them, and so the newbies leave, and so nothing changes. "don't know why they quit boss??"

This is why Netflix was able to beat Blockbuster even though Netflix was 20x smaller; on the surface big monster Blockbuster could just start streaming, duh, right?? Nothing proprietary there, right?!?

Wrong. it's the software stupid! (and probably more importantly the culture).

Gonna be a wild decade in the auto industry!
__________________

Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
I thought the next M4 was going to be a flying car powered by bloomin' onions and a teaspoon of mayonnaise. At least that's what I read on the internet @ BimmerPoop.org.
Appreciate 0
      07-05-2020, 07:47 AM   #4466
KRS_SN
Captain
721
Rep
769
Posts

Drives: F15,F30, F34, E91.
Join Date: Oct 2018
Location: Glasgow

iTrader: (0)

Quote:
Originally Posted by GrussGott View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ///M4ster Yoda View Post
People on this forum keep saying it's the future. According to whom?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dog Face Pony Soldier View Post
acknowledge that no one knows what's in our future.
Quote:
Originally Posted by KRS_SN View Post
plenty of coal n petrol n shale underneath our feet.
No one knows the future, but many people are making accurate data-driven projections ... FWIW, thought I'd take a sec to address "the future" - it's not a random unknowable:

We can use data to make accurate projections just a like a sniper who, given known variables like gravity, wind, etc can reliably hit targets 1500 yards away repeatedly. We can do that here too ... So give me a sec: imma go a little deep in the data to explain why oil is fucked.

[COLOR="DarkRed"]TLDR: because there's no money to be made in oil, and by the time there is, renewables will be way cheaper [/COLOR](and thus way more profitable) which is why Warren Buffett is buying into one of largest solar generating fields on the planet.

Why Oil is Fucked - A Bedtime Story

To understand why, I gotta get a stitch deep into business and finance: Our story starts with a thing called [COLOR="DarkRed"]The Leveraged Buyout[/COLOR] or LBO.

Basically an investor group, possibly including existing management, borrows money (leverage) to purchase all outstanding shares of a company and take it private. The trick is, they put that debt back onto the company they just purchased, pay themselves huge fat fees, and also own a massive piece of the new business!

If the new debt-laden business goes bankrupt, GREAT! The LBO group still owns the underlying assets, so they erase the debt, and pay themselves fat fees to re-org and emerge from bankruptcy; or they part-out and sell off the company and pay themselves fat fees for facilitating the sale. Or if the company manages to pay off the debt, GREAT! They own a super valuable asset!

Seeing a pattern here? If not, it's heads I win, tails you lose: the LBO group (called "[COLOR="darkred"]Private Equity[/COLOR]" these days), if they're 10% competent, always wins. And, of course, [COLOR="DarkRed"]these deals are always devastating for the employees[/COLOR], because in order to pay off all the debt you gotta cut costs and the easiest way to do that is cut employees, cut quality, defer maintenance, etc.
In short, here's an LBO:
(1.) ///M4ster Yoda and I start a PE firm by each kicking in $1M (maybe we even borrowed that!)
(2.) We raise another $2M from people on this thread for a total of $4M
(3.) We find a weakling company we value at, say, $100M
(4.) We use our $4M to borrow $130M, buy the company, pay ourselves $10M each, the rest of you $8M (100%+ return!), and the other $2M goes to buy off management and the board (so they agree to the $100M purchase!)
(5.) We pay ourselves fat fees for "management advice", board salaries, etc and keep milking the fucker until it dies or we exit.
Wash, rinse, repeat. Because that's what's up: we're barbarians and KingmuthafuckinKong, BITCH! [img]https://www.texanstalk.com/styles/te...gBeatChest.gif[/img]
These PE jackals are always on the hunt for vulnerable companies - they love companies with dependable cash flow because it's what's appealing to all the people lending you the money in the first place (usually via [COLOR="DarkRed"]junk bonds[/COLOR], i.e., high-yield debt). Plus, once the company is private, you might be able to sell fast to a greater fool who sees the cash flow and ignores the debt. [COLOR="DarkRed"]Notice I didn't say "make a profit!"[/COLOR], just cash flow! Because that's the story to lenders: "We'll create so much efficiency and all that cash flow will become huge profit!"

The PE jackals don't give a shit if their new company is profitable or not - they already made fat dime on the acquisition, so whatever happens after is just gravy.

[img]https://thumbs.gfycat.com/PhonyDistantHound-small.gif[/img]

[SIZE="3"]WTF does this have to do with oil???[/SIZE]

Well, guess who has lots of cash flow (and not profits)? Oil! Specifically shale ... which is NEW! ... with lots of inefficiency!

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

And who loves vulnerable companies with cashflow that can be purchased with high-yield debt? Private Equity Jackals - check out that junk bond explosion in shale!

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

So what, right? Well even before COVID19, all these debt-laden shale oil companies were heading for liquidity and solvency problems with a [COLOR="DarkRed"]$100B wall of debt[/COLOR] - all within 7 years!

[img]
View post on imgur.com
[/img]

And now this year with the oil price war, but even without it, nobody can make a profit:

[IMG]
View post on imgur.com
[/IMG]

So there's got to be bankruptcies, collapses, and industry consolidation ... BEFORE COVID, but now with a price war and demand collapse the problem is much worse.

[SIZE="3"]Here's the point:[/SIZE]
The oil industry is fucked; there's no money to be made due to all the debt, cheap shale oil, and a price war. That mess isn't going to be cleaned up for years even with 100% cooperation from OPEC which won't happen, so plan on 10 years.

[SIZE="3"]According to whom??[/SIZE]

Well, Warren Buffett has ~$15B of Phillips 66 (~10% of his portfolio), and owns Berkshire-Hathaway Energy (~10% of his revenue, ~$20B, 23k emp) so he knows energy and is deeply invested in it. Here's what he did in 2015:
[img]https://www.brkenergy.com/assets/img/master/logo-2C.png[/img]
Berkshire-Hathaway Energy: World Leader in Solar
BHE Solar’s Solar Star projects were completed in 2015. The projects... provide enough electricity to power approximately 255,000 average California households.

[img]https://www.brkenergy.com/assets/img...able-chart.png[/img]
And now in 2020 Buffett did this:
The Trump administration announced [in Jan 2020] final approval this week of the largest solar energy project ever granted in the U.S., and one of the biggest in the world, despite objections from conservationists .... The $1 billion Gemini solar and battery storage project about 30 miles (48 kilometers) northeast of Las Vegas is expected to produce 690 megawatts of electricity — enough to power 260,000 households ... Coupled with a [COLOR="DarkRed"]380-megawatt AC battery storage system[/COLOR], the project will be one of the first in Nevada to include batteries to enable power delivery after the sun goes down. The project would become the eighth-largest solar plant in the world
[SIZE="3"]
Why is Buffett going big in renewables??[/SIZE]

Because Buffett sees the writing on the wall - renewable technology has arrived:

[COLOR="DarkRed"]Oil is profit-dead for a decade and solar - in its infancy - is already at parity or cheaper than oil [/COLOR] - which means in 5-10 years solar, and its required storage technology, i.e., batteries, will be WAY cheaper than a shale oil well (which is fast to start but very expensive) or a deep-sea well which costs billions and takes 4-5 years - and COVID19 is only exacerbating this problem by dropping demand through the floor. And if shale can't make a profit dumping supply into full market, sure-as-fuck nobody else is making a profit either. Supply and demand.

[COLOR="DarkRed"]So it's counterintuitive, but cheap oil = dead oil. [/COLOR]

When we account for the forces driving the oil market variables, the sniper says by the end of the decade, oil will be a mostly industrial product and new power and new cars will be primarily BEV or other technologies. That's why it's already in the auto manufacturers 5 year plans. That's why the CEO of Porsche said in January there's "no possibility we're deviating from plan - the roadmap is set and it's what we'll stick with", and all this ignores that software is taking over the auto industry: both manufacturing (e.g., Tesla new patented assembly robot) and inside the car for power and systems management (e.g., Tesla's 400+ mile range OTA update), as well as on-demand options and services.

[COLOR="darkred"]So confidence in "the electric future" is simply because there is no foreseeable economic force that stops it.[/COLOR]

congrats if you made it this far!
guss i thought all that you wrote about oil ie cash flow but no profit was mega true of tesla and bev tech etc
Appreciate 0
Post Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off



All times are GMT -5. The time now is 01:05 PM.




g20
Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
1Addicts.com, BIMMERPOST.com, E90Post.com, F30Post.com, M3Post.com, ZPost.com, 5Post.com, 6Post.com, 7Post.com, XBimmers.com logo and trademark are properties of BIMMERPOST