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      06-04-2019, 08:59 AM   #23
mkoesel
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sedan_Clan View Post
FWIW, the price points of some of the ridiculous ///M4 variants reach closely into GT3 territory.
But only the M4 GTS has a base MSRP near the 911 GT3. BMW tried pushing the CS models’ starting MSRP up near and over 100K, but that was met with resistance, and you can now get them with huge incentives. They can try that again next generation, but you can’t sell something for more than people will pay for it.

It’s true you can option an M3 and M4 up with tens of thousands of dollars worth of Individual content and M Performance parts, but base pricing is very sensitive.

It’s a different market.

Furthermore, the OP - and presumably most everyone else looking forward to the G80 - wants a manual transmission in an affordable model, not in one that costs as much as a GT3.
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      06-04-2019, 09:28 AM   #24
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Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
BMW tried pushing the CS models' starting MSRP up near and over 100K, but that was met with resistance, and you can now get them with huge incentives. They can try that again next generation, but you can't sell something for more than people will pay for it.
I still see the CS's with $100k price points in SoCal dealerships. It's pretty ridiculous.
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      06-07-2019, 09:22 AM   #25
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Originally Posted by seis-speed View Post
take rates on the M2 and F80 being so high for 6MT cars,
Just wondering what he take rates for the F80 worldwide were?
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      06-11-2019, 05:52 AM   #26
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Just wondering what he take rates for the F80 worldwide were?
See: https://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1551939
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      06-11-2019, 08:07 AM   #27
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSBM5 View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZGM3 View Post
Just wondering what he take rates for the F80 worldwide were?
See: https://f80.bimmerpost.com/forums/sh....php?t=1551939
Interesting...
Excluding the CS
~28% take rate in the US (and Canada)
~5% take rate rest of world
~16% overall

To understand the complete case we need the M4 numbers as they share dev costs... however i imagine those are similar?

Either way I think it would be hard for them to turn away from slightly more than one of every 4 buyers in North America. Unless they have solid data that most manual buyers will convert and the actual risk to sales is much lower
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      06-11-2019, 09:37 AM   #28
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Originally Posted by xlover View Post
Either way I think it would be hard for them to turn away from slightly more than one of every 4 buyers in North America. Unless they have solid data that most manual buyers will convert and the actual risk to sales is much lower
That's a risk they no doubt try to solve for, but its not the only question they try to answer.

For example, they know that, at least as far as the M3 is concerned, there are exactly zero direct competitors with a manual transmission. There is still the possibility that the CT4 V++ and/or CT5 V++ (or whatever the hell they are going to be called) that Cadillac is known to be launching soon will have a manual transmission option, but they also have data that, if I had to guess, tells them that's less of a risk than a Mercedes or Audi, or even an Alfa or Jaguar, high performance sport sedan with a manual transmission would be.

They also no doubt have data that tells them how many customers they've lost due to the fact that the F80 M3 did not have available AWD. Such customers may have bought an RS5 Sportback instead, but perhaps even an S4/S5, C43, or even an E53 or S6 or something like that. Or, they may have instead purchased a 340i, M340i, M550i or M5, which of course complicates the formula. At any rate, they know that offering AWD for the G80 will win some of these folks back.

These and other factors are important because you always lose some people due to the lack of feature X, but you may gain more by adding feature Y. Everything has a cost, a risk, and a potential profit contribution.

None of this is left to a spin of the wheel, of course. At least, not where they can help it. It's all data science, and they've got smart people running the numbers. Like I said earlier, if there's money to be made, they'll ferret out the case and squeeze the cash from the potential market's wallet without second thought.
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      06-11-2019, 10:02 AM   #29
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I used to work for GM in transmission control design, specifically the 6AT (RWD/FWD - BTW the GM 6AT RWD B variant was for BMW to supplement the ZT 6AT in the 3-Series). My thourghts on the factors that are driving the automatic transmission for the M3/M4 are:

1. While enthusiats love the 6MT, I'm thinking that the majority of people (no data to support this) chose the an AT/DCT over the 6MT (for whatever reasons make sense to them - performance, convenience, don't know how to drive manual, etc.).
2. The ZF 8AT is already setup for AWD, which is enticing to some people and helpful in putting down the reported 500+hp for the higer-end variants of the M3/M4.
3. The ZF 8AT is also setup for hybrid powertrains, and I'm pretty sure that is an eventuality.

I don't know the HP/TQ specifications of the DCT or 6MT. I would think it could handle the reported HP/TQ specifications of the upcoming M3/M4. However, I feel it's more about setting the next generation M3/M4 up for AWD and hybridization than other factors. Just my thoughts - not claiming I know.

The post about the marketing of a product above was interesting. I agree it for the most part.
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      06-11-2019, 10:33 AM   #30
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
Quote:
Originally Posted by xlover View Post
Either way I think it would be hard for them to turn away from slightly more than one of every 4 buyers in North America. Unless they have solid data that most manual buyers will convert and the actual risk to sales is much lower
That's a risk they no doubt try to solve for, but its not the only question they try to answer.

For example, they know that, at least as far as the M3 is concerned, there are exactly zero direct competitors with a manual transmission. There is still the possibility that the CT4 V++ and/or CT5 V++ (or whatever the hell they are going to be called) that Cadillac is known to be launching soon will have a manual transmission option, but they also have data that, if I had to guess, tells them that's less of a risk than a Mercedes or Audi, or even an Alfa or Jaguar, high performance sport sedan with a manual transmission would be.

They also no doubt have data that tells them how many customers they've lost due to the fact that the F80 M3 did not have available AWD. Such customers may have bought an RS5 Sportback instead, but perhaps even an S4/S5, C43, or even an E53 or S6 or something like that. Or, they may have instead purchased a 340i, M340i, M550i or M5, which of course complicates the formula. At any rate, they know that offering AWD for the G80 will win some of these folks back.

These and other factors are important because you always lose some people due to the lack of feature X, but you may gain more by adding feature Y. Everything has a cost, a risk, and a potential profit contribution.

None of this is left to a spin of the wheel, of course. At least, not where they can help it. It's all data science, and they've got smart people running the numbers. Like I said earlier, if there's money to be made, they'll ferret out the case and squeeze the cash from the potential market's wallet without second thought.
Totally agree, emotions tend to run high on this topic but it's not personal it's just business...
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      06-14-2019, 03:03 AM   #31
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mkoesel View Post
That's a risk they no doubt try to solve for, but its not the only question they try to answer.

For example, they know that, at least as far as the M3 is concerned, there are exactly zero direct competitors with a manual transmission.
I feel like if they lose the manual, a lot of people will simply move to Audi/Mercedes or even cars like the GT350, ZL1, or Hellcat (just for the novelty). Of course, BMW is trying to save money right now in the massive costs of transitioning to EVs. So they might just be trying to figure out the best time to rip off the band-aid.

Here's to hoping we get one more manual M3/M4. I'm finally in the perfect position to buy one myself and it's infuriating to think I might not be able to order a new 6MT M3 just one generation too late. Buying a low mileage F80 won't be that big of a deal, but it'd be disappointing after growing up idolizing the E46.
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      06-14-2019, 10:24 AM   #32
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Quote:
Originally Posted by upsidedownfunnel View Post
I feel like if they lose the manual, a lot of people will simply move to Audi/Mercedes or even cars like the GT350, ZL1, or Hellcat (just for the novelty). Of course, BMW is trying to save money right now in the massive costs of transitioning to EVs. So they might just be trying to figure out the best time to rip off the band-aid.

Here's to hoping we get one more manual M3/M4. I'm finally in the perfect position to buy one myself and it's infuriating to think I might not be able to order a new 6MT M3 just one generation too late. Buying a low mileage F80 won't be that big of a deal, but it'd be disappointing after growing up idolizing the E46.
Beyond that all interviews and leaks said it was coming in 6MT form. To me, that is the dealbreaker, to backtrack on a loyal customer base, that is the ultimate slap in the face. I know Alpha promised a manual and did not come through, but BMW and (the iconic M3) is a different story/company, that was new, this is legacy. I still believe they are going to offer a manual, but if not, no way I keep getting my wife BMW SUV’s every three years, my relationship with new BMW’s will be over.
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