[The Automotive Enthusiast]

BERLIN -- German carmakers are likely to stop developing new combustion engines in as little as six years as they focus investments in electric cars and self-driving technology, Continental said.

Companies such as Volkswagen Group, Daimler and BMW Group face pressure to clean up their diesel engines two years after VW's emissions test-cheating scandal broke.

German politicians and car bosses agreed on Wednesday to overhaul engine software on 5.3 million diesel cars to cut pollution. However, environmentalists vowed to press ahead with legal action aimed at banning polluting vehicles.

Continental, which makes regulators for exhaust gas cleaning systems in diesel cars and nitrogen oxide-measuring sensors, expects German carmakers to abandon efforts to develop combustion engines from about 2023.

"A new generation of combustion engines will again be developed but after that (around 2023), a further development will no longer be economically justifiable because more and more work will switch into electric mobility," finance chief Wolfgang Schaefer said on Thursday.

Britain and France have announced plans to eventually ban sales of new diesel and gasoline vehicles and Tesla has launched its first mass-market electric car.

Separately, the CFO said he does not expect German carmakers to push for price cuts to help contain the costs of upgrading diesel engine software and offering scrapping incentives.

Volkswagen, Daimler and BMW are preparing for software updates to cost at least 500 million euros ($592 million) and for scrapping incentives to be even more expensive, Germany's VDA auto industry lobby said.

"We always have price pressures in our industry," Schaefer said.

"We expect no particular changes this year from what we are used to," he said when asked whether he expected carmakers to seek price reductions in the wake of the diesel agreement.

This somewhat contrasts with Continental stakeholder Schaeffler, which in June cut its annual profit guidance, citing increased price pressures in the automotive sector and higher development costs related to electric cars.

Hanover-based Continental earlier on Thursday reported a 10 percent drop in second-quarter adjusted operating profit to 1.16 billion euros, citing higher raw material costs at its tire-making division.

Continental has had a "reasonable" start into the July-to-September business period, the CFO said, even as the company braces for world car production to slow in the second half of the year, especially in the U.S.

"Continental put up a solid quarter with some small puts and takes but on the whole, was roughly in-line," said Evercore ISI analyst Chris McNally.

http://europe.autonews.com/article/2...engines-in-six

[dzvero]

dont believe everything , it wont happen next 30-40 years.

[JorgenM]

Very good news if prediction is true
Stop wasting time and money on ICE cars.

[Pierre Louis]

Originally Posted by JorgenM

Very good news if prediction is true
Stop wasting time and money on ICE cars.

I'm not worried. The market will speak very loudly as it is doing now. People should know that EV's are not what they are touted to be, but I guess it makes for good journalistic blather. They are neither clean nor environmentally friendly when energy sources involve coal and natural gas as well as nuclear waste.

I'll wager that most who think recent clean diesel (in this case by BMW) designs are worse haven't looked at the data comparing the choices, which is generally not published when writing about how bad ICE's are.

It will take a lot more infrastructure cost to improve our current "freedom to move about" system built over 140 years to convert the public to the centralized planning and control of EV's and autonomous cars.

PL

[mkoesel]

I saw this and while it is reasonable to assert that we are in the twilight years of ICE development, I'm not sure I would buy into this timeline yet. Consider that the supplier who is making this claim sells parts for diesel engines (as noted in the article). No doubt that, given all the recent backlash, diesel engines are in jeopardy in the coming decade. But gasoline engines will pair with electric engines for range extenders and PHEV for years to come.

Even when major development stops on ICE, existing engines (especially small displacement ones) will be with us for many more years. Another recent article suggests Mazda will bring HCCI to market in two years. This will likely extend the life of their SkyActiv engine family for another decade plus. Though, unless someone does a camless valvetrain, this may indeed be the last major ICE innovation to hit production vehicles. But even if that is the case, it should come as no surprise that ICE development will slow as hybrids become more prolific. The less the role the ICE plays in powering the vehicle, the less it makes sense to further optimize it. You optimize the part of the system that is the bottleneck and at some point the equation tips in favor of putting the R&D on the electric motor and whatever is supplying electricity to it (battery, fuel cell, or something else yet to come).

With this in mind, I'd say 2040 is a reasonable timeframe for the end of ICE sales in some regions for what we in the US call light trucks and passengers cars. I'm not sure it can happen in the US itself by then, but 2050 seems at least plausible (not necessarily what I would put my money on, however).

[RABAUKE]

I think the reports of the death of the ICE are being greatly exaggerated. EV's or some iteration of them is coming and will slowly take more market share no doubt. But I think the infrastructure to support them has a long way to go, that and range anxiety will slow the transition despite what the fanboy's keep telling us.

A while back when the push started hard here by government in Ontario, Toronto Hydro came out and said that the infrastructure could not support charging if 10% of the cars on the road were EV's. I know the argument is that most people will be charging overnight when other demands are low but realistically if everyone is charging overnight then the demand on the system in traditionally low demand times makes overnight a high demand time. Theres also the issue that in many cities like Toronto, older homes don't have a driveway or place to park near your house, how will you plug in if you have to park a block away from home because that's the only street parking you can find.

Another issue that isn't talked about is "quick charging stations", the notion that these can keep cars on the road for longer trips is great, and with the low volumes of EV's I suspect that arriving at one and plugging in for a 30 min 90 km top up works pretty good, but as EV's begin taking up more of the market I can see line ups for the charger in the future, your 30 min charge up might be preceded by a 90 min wait for the 3 EV's ahead of you.

Some of the biggest polluters aren't highly efficient cars, but transport trucks, freight trains, passenger/freight aircraft and cargo ships. I don't see battery EV technology addressing those issues anytime soon.

Just my two cents......

[3rdcoast228i]

So what happens if the majority decides to hold on to their ICE cars long as possible?

Are auto makers prepared to lose big $? Are governments willing to take a economic hit?

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by 3rdcoast228i

So what happens if the majority decides to hold on to their ICE cars long as possible?

Are auto makers prepared to lose big $? Are governments willing to take a economic hit?

As someone mentioned above, the market will ultimately determine what happens. If people are not buying electric cars then alternatives will remain available until they do.

There is a lot of talk in the present about aggressive legislation, but no government (well, no government of any reasonable nation) is going to pass sweeping rules banning ICE sales unless/until both they and the people are prepared for it. Some countries may be ready for this to happen very soon. For others, this could still be decades away.

In the US, for example, the government has CAFE and, at least in the near term, it is likely to continue to leverage that as a means to incentivize automakers to bring more efficient vehicles to market. At some point, hybrid powertrains become the most cost effective way to achieve the ever rising CAFE goals, and at that point all new vehicles (all light trucks and passenger cars, I mean) have an electric motor of some kind in their drivetrain. Then it just becomes a gradual march toward giving the (more and more powerful) electric motor full duty of propelling the car. Eventually, only when infrastructure is there and other factors fall into place, the ICE can be removed completely. Sure, in the meantime, there will be EV out there for early adopters, but this is the type of transition that needs to happen to get everyone on board.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Lobb

I think you'll find the leglisators 'direct' the automakers. Big Green political presence in Germany.

And the people direct the legislators. If the legislators are leading the country into a brave new green future, then the people must want it in some form or another. And that's great - those countries and their pioneering populous can be ahead of the curve. Kudos to them.

Remember what happened to Kodak when they buried their heads in the sand and ignored digital photography.

All major German automakers have electric vehicles for sale today, so clearly there is no head burying going on. As I've noted in other discussions, what is happening right now is that people are mistaking the relatively slow rate of EV adoption for automakers not building what people want. Instead, what's actually going on is that automakers are doing exactly what the people want - slowly introducing electric vehicles to those ready for them. If everyone wanted an EV then Tesla would have 50 million preorders for the Model 3, not 500,000, and all major automakers would be building millions of EVs to accommodate the huge imbalance between supply and demand.

[hellrotm]

Unless battery tech improves 10 fold in next 6 years, I don't see it happening. For someone in the US to have their only car be electric, range and/or charging time needs to improve drastically. The infrastructure in the US will not be ready in 6 years.

[Sedoy]

I bet German automakers started to make such claims to draw some positive media after diesel-gate scandals. I don't think this it will actually happen that soon.

[NickyC]

Better start mining a lot more coal!

[JohnnyCanuck]

Of course this can't happen this soon, it would be devastating for the environment. While coal is no longer the primary source of fuel for power generation, it remains the overwhelming dominant fuel to meet secondary demand. All these EV's plugged into the grid will require continued use of coal fired electricity at a rate that will generate far higher carbon emission than what is saved by a reduction in gas powered engines.

I am so tired of the complete lack of actual scientific environmental fact in the EV debate. Lithium production causes environmental damage. Battery disposal causes environmental damage. Clean power generation (from hydro, to solar, to wind) all have environmental impacts. And, there is no such thing as "clean coal". EV's do not portend environmental salvation nor do they augur significant carbon reduction. Those big trucks that move goods? Those big ships that move goods? Those big planes that move people and goods? Shouldn't those impacts be part of the debate?

It's time for factual debate instead of Elon Musk kool-aid.

[Viffermike]

Originally Posted by Lobb

I think you'll find the leglisators 'direct' the automakers. Big Green political presence in Germany.

Remember what happened to Kodak when they buried their heads in the sand and ignored digital photography.

Kodak suffered from one of the greatest cases of egocentrism and mismanagement in modern corporate history. It was an American company that, at the time, had absolutely no incentive to change -- not from the government, not from the market, not from its own leadership, and by some measures not from its own workforce. Sound familiar? All of that is a large reason why U.S. automakers like Chrysler nearly bit the dust around the same time.

No German company has had that kind of issue.

Besides: German law can only apply to cars made for the German market, which is relatively minuscule compared to the world market. I guarantee you many parts of Asia, South America, and Eastern Europe (among other areas) will not be able to support EVs or hybrids for decades. Decades. Germany can't force that. No nation can.

[The Automotive Enthusiast]

Originally Posted by BlackJetE90

Unless battery tech improves 10 fold in next 6 years, I don't see it happening. For someone in the US to have their only car be electric, range and/or charging time needs to improve drastically. The infrastructure in the US will not be ready in 6 years.

I'm not so sure about that. Tesla has done a nice job of implementing super chargers around the country. The time it takes for a battery to charge is still significant, though.

[MightyMouseTech]

Originally Posted by Mo@BMWofFairfax

I'm not so sure about that. Tesla has done a nice job of implementing super chargers around the country. The time it takes for a battery to charge is still significant, though.

How much does that really matter though when you leave home with a "full tank" every day.

[Viffermike]

Originally Posted by Lobb

As above. Britain and France have already announced, no new cars with ICEs from 2040. The rest of Europe is following.

Britain and France can legislate within their borders all they want. They can't tell companies based in their countries what to make for other markets. If they do, all those companies have to do is start building product outside Britain and France -- and many already do for exactly those reasons.

Stop looking at the trees and consider the forest, with the knowledge that most trees have little to no value when cut down.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Lobb

Yes. As I said, there is a big Green contingent in German politics.

Well, that's fine, but German automakers build and sell vehicles world-wide so if the markets outside of Germany demand ICE vehicles, then they will keep producing them for those markets.

I was referring to some of the contributors to this post, not the auto manufacturers.

You used an analogy about corporate mismanagement to refer to individuals? That makes no sense. Individuals have no direct monetary loss to suffer by ignoring EV proliferation as a corporation does when missing a rapidly evolving industry. The analogy doesn't work.

But sure, um, ok, I am certainly not going to debate you about the veracity of said claim.

[The Automotive Enthusiast]

Originally Posted by MightyMouseTech

How much does that really matter though when you leave home with a "full tank" every day.

That's the thing, some don't leave the house with a 'full tank'. Some people don't install the 220 into their homes for the fast charge. They plug in right into your normal 120.

The stories I could tell you...

[Sedoy]

... they will end up with a hybrid (gas/elec). Problem solved.

Originally Posted by Mo@BMWofFairfax

That's the thing, some don't leave the house with a 'full tank'. Some people don't install the 220 into their homes for the fast charge. They plug in right into your normal 120.

The stories I could tell you...

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Sedoy

... they will end up with a hybrid (gas/elec). Problem solved.

And a hybrid has an ICE of course, which is why I said in an earlier post, don't bet the farm on this one particular organization's prediction of ICE development coming to a halt quite so soon.

[Z K]

Originally Posted by Mo@BMWofFairfax

I'm not so sure about that. Tesla has done a nice job of implementing super chargers around the country. The time it takes for a battery to charge is still significant, though.

If you are where I am, there are many times the superchargers are all occupied and there is a waiting queue of cars waiting to use the supercharger. Same with regular EV chargers.

My friend drove up to visit and needed to charge his car for a few hours before heading home... he used an app to find charging stations and drove around (wasting charge) to a few charging points before we found an open charger. Most were occupied with EVs already. After dropping his EV off, we drove to eat (in my gas car) so he can charge and I dropped him off afterwards to pick up his car... Total waste of time, he vowed never to drive his EV up to visit me again.