[flybigjet]

https://www.edmunds.com/industry/pre...forecasts.html

New Vehicle Sales Continue Downward Slide in April, Edmunds Forecasts
Analysts say April will be the worst auto sales month in at least 30 years due to the coronavirus pandemic

SANTA MONICA, CA — April 30, 2020 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that April will be a record down month for the auto industry due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, forecasting that 633,260 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 7.7 million. This reflects a 52.5% decrease in sales from April 2019, and a 36.6% decrease from March 2020. Edmunds analysts note that this is the lowest-volume sales month dating back to at least 1990; the second worst month for sales in the past 30 years was January of 2009, when 655,000 vehicles were sold.

"April auto sales took the biggest hit we've seen in decades," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "These bleak figures aren't just because consumers are holding back on their purchases — fleet sales are seeing an even more dramatic drop as daily rental business has dried up. Like many other industries, the entire automotive sector is struggling as the coronavirus crisis continues to cripple the economy."

Edmunds experts note that plans for easing shelter-in-place orders across the country in May could open up opportunities for automakers and dealers to capture some deferred demand, but there is still economic uncertainty ahead.

"April is likely the bottom for auto sales, so hopefully there's only room for improvement from here," said Caldwell. "But with employment and consumer confidence at new lows, the question remains: Will people be in the position to purchase new cars? Although automakers are doing their part by offering landmark incentives, those might not be enough if consumers cannot recover financially from this crisis."


SALES VOLUME FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
SALES
VOLUME 2020 April
Forecast April 2019 March 2020 Change from
April 2019 Change from
March 2020
GM 123,408 231,375 167,339 -46.7% -26.3%
Ford 103,105 194,219 169,012 -46.9% -39.0%
FCA 91,766 172,900 127,593 -46.9% -28.1%
Toyota 75,679 183,866 135,730 -58.8% -44.2%
Hyundai/Kia 56,396 108,410 81,500 -48.0% -30.8%
Honda 48,363 125,775 77,153 -61.5% -37.3%
Nissan 35,443 95,698 78,159 -63.0% -54.7%
VW/Audi 25,694 46,333 35,258 -44.5% -27.1%
Industry 633,260 1,333,560 998,268 -52.5% -36.6%
*NOTE: April 2020 had 26 selling days, April 2019 had 25 and March 2020 had 25.


Edmunds estimates that retail SAAR will come in at 6.7 million vehicles in April 2020, with fleet transactions accounting for 13.0% of total sales.


MARKET SHARE FORECAST, BY MANUFACTURER
Market
Share 2020 April
Forecast April 2019 March 2020 Change from
April 2019 Change from
March 2020
GM 19.5% 17.4% 16.8% 2.1% 2.7%
Ford 16.3% 14.6% 16.9% 1.7% -0.6%
FCA 14.5% 13.0% 12.8% 1.5% 1.7%
Toyota 12.0% 13.8% 13.6% -1.8% -1.6%
Hyundai/Kia 8.9% 8.1% 8.2% 0.8% 0.7%
Honda 7.6% 9.4% 7.7% -1.8% -0.1%
Nissan 5.6% 7.2% 7.8% -1.6% -2.2%
VW/Audi 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 0.6% 0.5%

More insight into recent auto industry trends can be found in the Edmunds Industry Center at https://www.edmunds.com/industry-center/.

About Edmunds
Edmunds guides car shoppers online from research to purchase. With in-depth reviews of every new vehicle, shopping tips from an in-house team of experts, plus a wealth of consumer and automotive market insights, Edmunds helps millions of shoppers each month select, price and buy a car with confidence. Regarded as one of America's best workplaces by Fortune and Great Place to Work, Edmunds is based in Santa Monica, California, and has a satellite office in Detroit, Michigan. Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram.

[IK6SPEED]

New Vehicle Sales Continue Downward Slide in April, Edmunds Forecasts

Analysts say April will be the worst auto sales month in at least 30 years due to the coronavirus pandemic

SANTA MONICA, CA — April 30, 2020 — The car shopping experts at Edmunds say that April will be a record down month for the auto industry due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, forecasting that 633,260 new cars and trucks will be sold in the U.S. for an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 7.7 million. This reflects a 52.5% decrease in sales from April 2019, and a 36.6% decrease from March 2020. Edmunds analysts note that this is the lowest-volume sales month dating back to at least 1990; the second worst month for sales in the past 30 years was January of 2009, when 655,000 vehicles were sold.

"April auto sales took the biggest hit we've seen in decades," said Jessica Caldwell, Edmunds' executive director of insights. "These bleak figures aren't just because consumers are holding back on their purchases — fleet sales are seeing an even more dramatic drop as daily rental business has dried up. Like many other industries, the entire automotive sector is struggling as the coronavirus crisis continues to cripple the economy."

Edmunds experts note that plans for easing shelter-in-place orders across the country in May could open up opportunities for automakers and dealers to capture some deferred demand, but there is still economic uncertainty ahead.

"April is likely the bottom for auto sales, so hopefully there's only room for improvement from here," said Caldwell. "But with employment and consumer confidence at new lows, the question remains: Will people be in the position to purchase new cars? Although automakers are doing their part by offering landmark incentives, those might not be enough if consumers cannot recover financially from this crisis."

More:

https://www.edmunds.com/industry/pre...forecasts.html

[cfm56d7b]

IK6SPEED, thanks for sharing.

Consumer spending fuels about 70% of US GDP. Any fears about continued unemployment will influence used and new car sales. It will take another 3 months to reflect more accurate consumer sentiment.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by cfm56d7b

IK6SPEED, thanks for sharing.

Consumer spending fuels about 70% of US GDP. Any fears about continued unemployment will influence used and new car sales. It will take another 3 months to reflect more accurate consumer sentiment.

Yes.

I realize Edmunds wants to put a positive spin on the Industry, but anyone thinking April is worst of the economic data is only fooling themselves with consumer sentiment this low.

[5.M0NSTER]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

Yes.

I realize Edmunds wants to put a positive spin on the Industry, but anyone thinking April is worst of the economic data is only fooling themselves with consumer sentiment this low.

Ditto, the industry won’t recover this year. The economic pain of this pandemic and everyone’s reaction to it will last well into 2021.

[heavyD^2]

Nobody is doing well here but Nissan was already in trouble and things are looking really bleak for that brand.

[Burrcold]

Originally Posted by heavyD^2

Nobody is doing well here but Nissan was already in trouble and things are looking really bleak for that brand.

I use to love Nissan back in the day...my how far they've fallen.

[sinopath]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

Yes.

I realize Edmunds wants to put a positive spin on the Industry, but anyone thinking April is worst of the economic data is only fooling themselves with consumer sentiment this low.

In your opinion, why has the stock market been going up last month?

[FC4]

Originally Posted by sinopath

In your opinion, why has the stock market been going up last month?

Because companies which had a successful January, February, and first half of March reported strong earnings relative to the sentiment. Well...up until yesterday, at least.

The months following are going to be an absolute bloodbath.

[IK6SPEED]

Originally Posted by sinopath

In your opinion, why has the stock market been going up last month?

The stock market pricing often has almost nothing to do with GDP / Economy.

Notice stock market bottomed in March of 2009, yet look at GDP/Economy in 2010, 2011 etc. They started the ridiculous 7 year loans on cars at literally 0% at that time. And cash for clunkers. And it still took a good number of years to get cars moving.

Stock prices are historically based on P/E ratios and given those prices today, expect a reversion to historical norms, especially with forthcoming numbers.

Even Elon Musk stated today that Tesla stock was way too high.

[sinopath]

Originally Posted by IK6SPEED

The stock market pricing often has almost nothing to do with GDP / Economy.

Notice stock market bottomed in March of 2009, yet look at GDP/Economy in 2010, 2011 etc. They started the ridiculous 7 year loans on cars at literally 0% at that time. And cash for clunkers. And it still took a good number of years to get cars moving.

Stock prices are historically based on P/E ratios and given those prices today, expect a reversion to historical norms, especially with forthcoming numbers.

Even Elon Musk stated today that Tesla stock was way too high.

Interesting, I've been always given the impression that the stock market is the indicator of US economy, like the way President Trump always brags about how good the economy is using indices. So I really thought the end of March is the bottom, and US economy is coming back. This kind of matches the reality too, as the peak has past, more cars are on the road, restrictions are being lifted, people care less and less about social-distancing, etc.

[paliknight]

Originally Posted by sinopath

Interesting, I've been always given the impression that the stock market is the indicator of US economy, like the way President Trump always brags about how good the economy is using indices. So I really thought the end of March is the bottom, and US economy is coming back. This kind of matches the reality too, as the peak has past, more cars are on the road, restrictions are being lifted, people care less and less about social-distancing, etc.

I think he’s just trying to reduce the mass panic covid is inducing, but I’m just hypothesizing.

However, unemployment is ridiculously high, and jobs wont be hiring soon after Covid. It’ll take time to rehire and therefore, get paid.

[stein_325i]

Originally Posted by Burrcold

I use to love Nissan back in the day...my how far they've fallen.

I wouldn't be surprised if Infiniti got cancelled, it wouldn't be the first time Nissan has considered it. Right now they're only competitive in lease rates, other than that their cars can't hold a candle to the G, M and FX. Not to mention they've pretty much already pulled out of Europe, they're sales are down on every vehicle even during the Crossover-apocalypse, and most of their cars are already marketed as Nissans in other markets or are based off Nissans anyways.

[surge98]

As someone who follows the markets closely on a daily basis, my estimated fair-market value for the S&P is around 2400. It bounced off an oversold condition at 2198 and has rallied well beyond 2400, hitting 2950 last week before starting to pull back.

Stocks are up for three reasons: first, the market is always forward-looking and the current situation is already priced in. What is not priced in is a second wave of infections that forces another months-long shutdown of the economy in the fall or winter.

Second, the only thing Democrats and Republicans can agree on is that they will spend any amount of money to keep propping up the economy. Whether it's more stimulus checks or endless replenishing of the PPP program, neither party is going to restrain their spending in an election year.

Third, and most important, the Federal Reserve is acting as an unlimited backstop of the economy, going so far as to buy junk bonds. The old adage of "don't fight the fed" applies here. If they can buy junk bonds, what's to stop them from buying index futures, ETFs, or even individual stocks?

I'm lucky enough to still be working from home and getting paid, so I will replace my 128i with a new 2 series later this year as I'd originally planned before all of this started. But I'm starting to think I won't trade in the 128i, I'll just park it at my parents house until the market recovers and I can get a fair price for it.