[MT4life]

Originally Posted by Cortexiphan

The thing is; if BMW or MB or even Audi comes up with a fully electric model 3 equivelant car, you would have absolutely no reason to buy Tesla. That’s the problem with Tesla...

That's not the problem with Tesla, that's what needs to happen to Tesla

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Cortexiphan

The thing is; if BMW or MB or even Audi comes up with a fully electric model 3 equivelant car, you would have absolutely no reason to buy Tesla. That’s the problem with Tesla...

If only it were that simple, right? Comments like this one made by VW's Herbert Diess:

“I think Tesla is doing a good job. They don’t have to care about the legacy. They don’t have to care about the next generation of gasoline in motors and so they can really focus on the future. It’s an advantage.”

(from: https://www.google.com/search?q=Diess+Financial+Times)

Touch on the problem the traditional players face due to the disruption Tesla is causing. That is, VW and the other automakers cannot merely introduce electric vehicles that match the Tesla Model 3 in selling price without a potentially major negative impact on the revenue from their existing ICE business.

The reason for this is that the still-high cost batteries means that the ICE drivetrain is still less expensive to produce than a roughly equivalent BEV drivetrain with acceptable range, so the margins on an EV are currently much tighter than those on a similar ICE vehicle. If BMW introduced a $35k-to-$45k mainstream EV today (that is, one targeted at the same general group of people who buy their ICE vehicles, so not the i3), every single one they sold would mean less profit than if they got those customers to buy the ICE equivalent instead.

Tesla doesn't have this problem. Sure, Tesla has its own share of problems, such as the fact that they absolutely bled cash for years and continue to have what to one degree or another (depending on who you ask) is an uncertain financial future. But their unique legacy-free product lineup nevertheless affords them the advantage of being able to get very aggressive with their business model and allows them to experiment with strategies other large automakers simply cannot.

It's why BMW can't and won't have a $35K "i4 50kW" to take on the Model 3 SR nor a $38K "iX3 50kW" to take on the Model Y SR. Well, I should say, they won't have them next year, and maybe not the year after either. They will most certainly have more affordable entry level EV's sometime next decade, but they have to manage the process carefully so they don't sever the main artery that is their ICE revenue stream.

Meanwhile, Tesla has built up sizable mindshare - and even market share now that the Model 3 is here - as the EV leader. The others are playing catch up. Indeed Jaguar launched their electric i-Pace SUV last year, but so far they are fighting an uphill battle against the established Model X:

http://www.goodcarbadcar.net/2019/03...ry-suv-ranked/

Expect similar challenges for other electric SUVs coming from Audi, BMW, and Mercedes this year and next year. Now, the Porsche Taycan on the other hand, should give the closest Tesla equivalent - the Model S - something to chew on due to Porsche's fantastic execution of this vehicle (going by what we've seen so far) and legendary sporting credentials. They've already doubled production targets from 20k to 40k which should put them on pace to at the very least challenge Model S sales totals for 2020 (and probably steal a decent share of them too).

Like most who accept the shift to EV as inevitable, I really want to see great EV options from BMW and other players. At the same time, it is not difficult to see why so many are going with a Tesla product right now. Sure, Tesla's vehicles have their share of bugs and idiosyncrasies, but when the electric alternatives are FWD "econoboxes" from Nissan, GM, or Kia, who wouldn't choose the RWD sport sedan, quirks and all, especially now that its even available at the same starting price as those others?

[openwheelracing]

Originally Posted by Cortexiphan

The thing is; if BMW or MB or even Audi comes up with a fully electric model 3 equivelant car, you would have absolutely no reason to buy Tesla. That’s the problem with Tesla...

It doesn't work that way. That upcoming i4 does not look like a serious competitor either considering all the compromises of using 4 Grand Coupe chassis.

Fact is, no one at this time makes a better electric car than Tesla despite all their flaws. Not even close.

Originally Posted by PureModelsOnly

Literally all of the 5 or 6 Teslas in my work parking lot have condensation in the tail lights as I walked by them today. One doesn't even have plates yet. #buildquality

Apparently G20 has same thing and some here are arguing it's normal. There is a thread here.

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by Cortexiphan

The thing is; if BMW or MB or even Audi comes up with a fully electric model 3 equivelant car, you would have absolutely no reason to buy Tesla. That’s the problem with Tesla...

like i said before, product defines the brand not the other way around.

i won't buy BEV from any brands other there simply because it "made by that brand", the alternative needs to have a competitive advantage that i care about.

maybe you have no reason to buy tesla but i strongly suspect it's gonna be very different for the majority of EV buyers out there. BEVs are still new and expensive cars, to buy one needs a little commitment and people want their money's worth.

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by Sportstick

Yes, in almost anything, a competitive advantage is necessary for market success. I think quality/experience will be one, and from what I've seen so far, exterior design will be another. Once one crosses a reasonable range threshold, I don't know if there is much difference for another 20-30 miles...to be determined. Aren't most folks commuting and plugging in at home at night? In my case, the ability to get an EV without autopilot functions will be a winning differentiator. I wouldn't want to spend another dollar for those functions that I disdain. Having learned more about Tesla's stumbles, I am also willing to be patient for the market to mature a bit for a more experienced supplier.

exterior is highly subjective so i won't get into that. model 3 looks weird, but by all means it's not definitively ugly. i mean, a couple of hundred of thousand people bought it so....

i seriously doubt if other OEMs can get their BEVs to the same EPA(not that euro WLTP crap) range as tesla while selling at the same price, to me that seems impossible unless they actively manufacture their own cells. But you are right if the range difference is 20-30miles and the price difference is less than a couple thousand people will definitely cross shop.

but keep in mind range is not the only thing that matters, fast charging is also critical to BEVs usability. with the v3 supercharger i can charge my car 15%-70% in 15min. no other companies have that network in place, yet(hopefully VW can push theirs out asap)

as for autopilot i can't imagine driving on the freeway without it, to me it's worth every penny i spent .

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

If only it were that simple, right? Comments like this one made by VW's Herbert Diess:....

took the words right out of my mouth, should've looked at your post before i replied

[openwheelracing]

Originally Posted by Sportstick

Yes, in almost anything, a competitive advantage is necessary for market success. I think quality/experience will be one, and from what I've seen so far, exterior design will be another. Once one crosses a reasonable range threshold, I don't know if there is much difference for another 20-30 miles...to be determined. Aren't most folks commuting and plugging in at home at night? In my case, the ability to get an EV without autopilot functions will be a winning differentiator. I wouldn't want to spend another dollar for those functions that I disdain. Having learned more about Tesla's stumbles, I am also willing to be patient for the market to mature a bit for a more experienced supplier.

But you could buy a Tesla w/o auto pilot. You wrote it as if they force you to buy it.

[aspiring335]

Originally Posted by Cortexiphan

The thing is; if BMW or MB or even Audi comes up with a fully electric model 3 equivelant car, you would have absolutely no reason to buy Tesla. That's the problem with Tesla...

The supercharger network is still a huge differentiator. I didn't use it that often, but not having it would have meant that even with the 500 km+ range, my Model S 100D would not have worked for all of my driving requirements. Perhaps once or twice a month I'll have a meeting 200km + away, so 400km of driving in a day. In the winter, that's a stretch for any EV, but with the supercharger network it's no big deal.

In Ontario the non-Tesla charging infrastructure is still pitiful, so Tesla is still the only choice that allows you to have the same freedom as a gas car.

[Sportstick]

Originally Posted by ecaedus

as for autopilot i can't imagine driving on the freeway without it, to me it's worth every penny i spent .

Respectfully, this part I do not understand on a BMW forum. Aren't we a group of people who can't wait to drive and be hands on the wheel at every opportunity possible?

[MT4life]

Originally Posted by Sportstick

Respectfully, this part I do not understand on a BMW forum. Aren't we a group of people who can't wait to drive and be hands on the wheel at every opportunity possible?

Exactly! This thread is an excercise in patience and tolerance.

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by Sportstick

Respectfully, this part I do not understand on a BMW forum. Aren't we a group of people who can't wait to drive and be hands on the wheel at every opportunity possible?

And still, how many anti-Tesla voices here have never driven a Model 3?

[Sportstick]

Originally Posted by ynguldyn

And still, how many anti-Tesla voices here have never driven a Model 3?

It didn't warrant a test drive after examining the showroom property. It warranted kicking off the deposit refund process.

[mkoesel]

Originally Posted by Sportstick

Respectfully, this part I do not understand on a BMW forum. Aren't we a group of people who can't wait to drive and be hands on the wheel at every opportunity possible?

I hear you on that. I am not ready to hand over control of the vehicle to a computer. I enjoy being in charge of the driving.

Yet, BMW is nevertheless deep into development on their own autonomous vehicle systems which will go into production with upcoming I20 electric SAV in 2021. This is a clear sign that BMW’s customers are asking for these features just like drivers of other makes of vehicles are.

So, in fact, the reality is that not everyone who buys a BMW wants the same things from it.

Originally Posted by Sportstick

No, I wrote as if responding to the previous post which included a desire for autopilot in an i4. We have diametrical preferences about autopilot.

FWIW, your post read the same way to me as he interpreted it. It very much sounded like you weren’t aware you could order a Model 3 without the autonomous features.

[Sportstick]

Originally Posted by mkoesel

FWIW, your post read the same way to me as he interpreted it. It very much sounded like you weren’t aware you could order a Model 3 without the autonomous features.

My apologies to you, openwheelracing,and others for my less than clear writing. My bad. Thanks to both of you for pointing it out so I could withdraw and clarify.

[aspiring335]

Originally Posted by Sportstick

Respectfully, this part I do not understand on a BMW forum. Aren't we a group of people who can't wait to drive and be hands on the wheel at every opportunity possible?

I love driving but would never say that I can't wait to drive on a boring freeway in heavy traffic. Autonomous systems have their place, and properly deployed can improve safety and relieve the tedium of a lot of driving that *isn't* carving up corners on a deserted mountain road. Particularly if you live in or commute into a big city, a lot of driving these days is a grind, and in those scenarios I prioritize comfort and lower stress over everything else.

That said, Tesla's autopilot is ridiculously overhyped, and the cult-like behaviour of Tesla's followers means many of them believe in the utter rubbish of Musk's claims that Tesla is close to offering self-driving cars. Recently, the Tesla website has been updated so that the "Full Self Driving" option simply removes some features from what used to be "Enhanced Autopilot" and asks buyers to pay for them separately. FSD has always been a borderline fraudulent scam / cash grab on Tesla's part, but their followers seem to lap it up.

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by aspiring335

That said, Tesla's autopilot is ridiculously overhyped, and the cult-like behaviour of Tesla's followers means many of them believe in the utter rubbish of Musk's claims that Tesla is close to offering self-driving cars. Recently, the Tesla website has been updated so that the "Full Self Driving" option simply removes some features from what used to be "Enhanced Autopilot" and asks buyers to pay for them separately. FSD has always been a borderline fraudulent scam / cash grab on Tesla's part, but their followers seem to lap it up.

Leaving the hype and the absolutely unnecessary wordplay in Tesla marketing materials aside, can you point to a more advanced automated driving system available in a mass produced car today?

[aspiring335]

Originally Posted by ynguldyn

Leaving the hype and the absolutely unnecessary wordplay in Tesla marketing materials aside, can you point to a more advanced automated driving system available in a mass produced car today?

Yes, Audi already has level 3 autonomy. Tesla's autopilot is level 2 (i.e. just fancy cruise control). Until last year they didn't even have blind spot monitoring, and even now that they have implemented it, it sucks because Musk said radar wasn't necessary. Because of his ego, they took years to implement a worse and more dangerous camera-based system than the radar-based systems in dozens of $20k cars.

It's quite likely that autopilot has more functionality than some other level 2 systems simply because Tesla will recklessly put out "beta" features to keep the reality distortion field going. I can't trust a product released by a CEO who appears to be a pathological liar and fantasist.

Other car manufacturers are much more cautious about what they release, but leaving that aside the consensus in the industry is that Tesla is basically nowhere when it comes to true autonomy compared to waymo and other actual autonomous driving companies.

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by aspiring335

Yes, Audi already has level 3 autonomy. Tesla's autopilot is level 2 (i.e. just fancy cruise control).

I'm sorry, I'm bad with numbers. Will an Audi drive me ramp-to-ramp with me just holding my hand on the steering wheel like my Tesla does?

[Mii]

Originally Posted by ynguldyn

I'm sorry, I'm bad with numbers. Will an Audi drive me ramp-to-ramp with me just holding my hand on the steering wheel like my Tesla does?

Level 1 autonomous cars: a single aspect is automated
Level 2 driverless cars: chips control two or more elements
Level 2+ autonomous cars: some where in between
Level 3 autonomous cars: the car can boss safety-critical functions
Level 4 driverless cars: fully autonomous in controlled areas
Level 5 driverless cars: fully autonomous, anywhere. Driver optional...

Source: https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/car-ne...els-explained/

[ynguldyn]

Originally Posted by Mii

Level 1 autonomous cars: a single aspect is automated
Level 2 driverless cars: chips control two or more elements
Level 2+ autonomous cars: some where in between
Level 3 autonomous cars: the car can boss safety-critical functions
Level 4 driverless cars: fully autonomous in controlled areas
Level 5 driverless cars: fully autonomous, anywhere. Driver optional...

"Somewhere in between" and "boss" are not helpful at all.

Can an Audi navigate the highway portions of my trip without my intervention?

[ecaedus]

Originally Posted by aspiring335

Yes, Audi already has level 3 autonomy. Tesla's autopilot is level 2 (i.e. just fancy cruise control). Until last year they didn't even have blind spot monitoring, and even now that they have implemented it, it sucks because Musk said radar wasn't necessary. Because of his ego, they took years to implement a worse and more dangerous camera-based system than the radar-based systems in dozens of $20k cars.

It's quite likely that autopilot has more functionality than some other level 2 systems simply because Tesla will recklessly put out "beta" features to keep the reality distortion field going. I can't trust a product released by a CEO who appears to be a pathological liar and fantasist.

Other car manufacturers are much more cautious about what they release, but leaving that aside the consensus in the industry is that Tesla is basically nowhere when it comes to true autonomy compared to waymo and other actual autonomous driving companies.

audi's level 3 system isn't even legal in the states, and it doesn't work for speeds above traffic jams.

saying the camera system in teslas are somehow inferior than a single radar based system in the civic shows how ignorant and uninformed you are about the current autonomous tech in the market. please educate yourself first before spewing hyperbole like this.

i'm not gonna pretend autopilot doesn't have its fair share of problems or the term "auto"pilot itself is misleading. i just think at this point if you are still fooled by marketing buzzword then that's on you. time and again autopilot has been proven by different 3rd parties to be one of the most capable lane keeping level 2 assist in the industry today, maybe short of the Supercruise.

honestly i don't believe in full autonomous driving at all, not in its current stage with the current tech anyways. my sole reason for buying the autopilot is because want the best level 2 system out there, nothing more. i'm fully aware of the limitations and i'm willing to accept them for what i get.

i agree tesla's approach to this whole autonomous goal is not well executed, but currently there's no company out there who's ready to release its system into the spotlights, this tech is still at its infancy and maybe 30 years down the road we'll finally get it to work "the right way". i don't really care how any company get there, as long as i know what limitations it has along the way and how i can use the system within its capabilities.

[openwheelracing]

My research about all the semi autonomous tech between different companies tell me that Tesla is among the top, if not the best out there. I, myself am not sold on auto pilot but but care about emergency brake and cars awareness on the road. Mercedes radar system tested worse than Subaru camera eyesight.system. BMW Just failed miserably last month it didn't even brake slammed straight into the dummy. They are not as cut and dry as "radar" vs "cameras". The Model 3 has radar sensors and 8 cameras if I am not mistaken. If there is one company I would bet on EAB I would bet on Tesla and Volvo at this time.

Regardless, Model 3 is an excellent handling vehicle,.so why would I not want to drive it myself with a bit of lane keeping and EAB assist?